Ukraine, which sees its grain harvest down by about 10 percent to 37.4 million tonnes in 2005, is likely to keep exports at a high level of between 7.5 and 9.0 million tonnes in 2005/06, analysts said on Monday. The government said Ukraine harvested a record 41.7 million tonnes in 2004, while analysts believe the harvest will be lower, up to 37 million.
"The forecast of about 37 million tonnes is almost realistic and is far from the bumper expectations made by the previous government," said Serhiy Feofilov from analysts UkrAgroConsult.
He said final figures would depend on spring weather.
Ukraine is in a "risky planting" zone and bad weather in April-June can affect the harvest seriously.
"We can say that Ukraine's grain harvest is likely to be lower than in 2004 due to the late spring, recent snows and sub-zero temperatures across the country," said Mykola Vernytsky from ProAgro consultancy. He said a late spring could delay sowing, damage winter crops and reduce yields.
Ukraine's farm ministry said this month that about 10 percent of winter crops sown for the 2005 grain harvest were damaged by weather and had to be reseeded.
Analysts said that despite a possible reduction in the grain crop, Ukraine was likely to maintain its position as a major exporter, able to sell up to nine million tonnes of grain in the 2005/06 July-June season.
"Ukraine's grain exports are likely to be at the same level as in 2004/05 - between eight and nine million tonnes," Vernytsky said.
He noted that Ukraine could export about 4.5 million tonnes of barley, some three million tonnes of wheat, up to a million tonnes of maize and other cereals, like peas, oats and millet.
Feofilov also forecast exports at 7.5-9.0 million tonnes, with the volume likely to include about 3.5 million tonnes of barley, between 2.5 and 3.0 million tonnes of wheat, one million tonnes of maize and other grains.
In 2004/05 Ukraine has already exported about eight million tonnes of grain, including 3.1 million tonnes of wheat and 3.8 million of barley.
Analysts have said Ukraine's exports could total about nine million tonnes of grain in 2004/05 compared to 2.8 million in 2003/04 and 10.7 million in 2002/03.
They said Ukraine, as well as Russia and Kazakhstan, were likely to boost their roles on the world grain export market.
The three could increase wheat exports to 16.6 million tonnes in 2005/06 from 14.1 million in 2004/05. Barley exports could rise to 7.5 million next season from 6.45 million in 2004/05.