Showers should fall early this week but won't end drought stress in southern Brazilian soya states from Rio Grande do Sul to Mato Grosso do Sul, private meteorologist Somar predicted Monday. "Rainfall (in the south) will be irregular and in some areas won't exceed 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), so it won't change the drought situation," Somar said in a daily report.
Rio Grande do Sul is expected to lose 70 percent of its soya crop, due to lack of rain during the past two months, private analyst Agroconsult said last Thursday.
However, rains will be heavier in Mato Grosso and Goias in the center-west region. Mato Grosso had more than 70 mm (2.7 inches) of rain over the weekend
Rains will fade between March 26 and 30 and dry weather will return to south Brazil. But Mato Grosso and Goias will remain wet and the north-eastern states of Bahia and Maranhao will also be showery.
Agroconsult last week cut its Brazil soyabean crop estimate to 51.8 million tonnes from 53.1 million tonnes estimated on March 7. But it added that yields in Mato Grosso were excellent and forecast that the crop would be 16.6 percent higher.
Private analysts Safras e Mercado also slashed its Brazil soya crop forecast by 15 percent to 51.95 million tonnes from 61.16 million tonnes projected on February 17 due to the drought.
Brazilian farmers sold 44 percent of the 2004/05 (October-September) crop by March 11, compared with 58 percent at the same time a year ago, private analyst Celeres said last Tuesday.
Celeres estimated that 20 percent of Brazil's soya crop had been harvested, the same as a year ago but slightly less than the five-year average of 22 percent.
Sales and harvesting are most advanced in the center-west where 50 percent of the crop has been sold and 31 percent gathered, compared with only 15 percent in the south.
Following is a rainfall table for the month with rain amounts expressed in millimeters, according to Somar. (One millimeter equals 0.03937 inches.)