Dollar eyes recent two-week highs

23 Mar, 2005

The dollar held near a recent two-week high against the euro and the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors waited to hear what the Federal Reserve will say after an expected interest rate increase due later in the day. The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point to 2.75 percent in its seventh consecutive hike. Some expect it will hint at a more aggressive stance by removing previous references to raising rates at a "measured" pace.
Markets are also focused on US producer price data due at 1330 GMT for clues about how aggressively the Fed would need to tighten to counter inflation given a recent surge in oil prices.
"We are in a holding pattern until we get the Fed's decision out of the way. We want to see if they keep the "measured" phrase or get rid of it," said Paul Mackel, currency strategist at ABN Amro in London.
By 1240 GMT the euro was steady at $1.3177, having fallen to a two-week low of $1.3138 on Monday. The dollar was also steady at 1.1780 Swiss francs and 105.00 yen.
The greenback has gained more than two percent against the euro and yen since the start of the year as investors bet that rising interest rates and better yields on dollar assets would offset worries about financing of the US current account deficit.
Signals of faster monetary tightening from the Fed would support investor expectations, which had lost some steam about a month ago.
Given concerns about rising inflation, especially with oil prices climbing to fresh record highs last week, some analysts expected the Fed to indicate in its post-discussion report that it would shift to an accelerated pace of tightening.
"The dollar is being helped by expectations the Fed could be more concerned about inflation and come out more hawkish than before," said Johan Javeus, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
"The producer prices index is also interesting given higher commodity prices. Over time an increase (in the PPI) would be passed through to consumer prices inflation."

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