Metals prices drift lower, oil gains in global markets

12 Jun, 2005

Metals prices dropped last week as the dollar firmed, while oil extended gains and coffee fell from five-year high points. The Commodities Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities fell to 303.02 points on Friday, from 306.13 points the previous week.
GOLD: Gold prices dropped as the dollar firmed against major currencies. "The precious metals continued to succumb to dollar-related pressure," said James Moore, an analyst at the specialist website TheBullionDesk.com. A stronger US currency makes gold - denominated in dollars on world markets - more expensive for buyers.
A firmer dollar "will ultimately lend further pressure to the market and with gold now lacking the strong physical cushion it saw two weeks ago, I think we could be looking at a test back towards 414 dollars and possibly lower."
A fall in buying interest from India has reduced demand for gold.
On the London Bullion Market, gold prices eased to 422.55 dollars per ounce at the late fixing on Friday from 423.55 dollars the previous week.
SILVER: Silver prices slumped from three-month highs owing to technical sales and the strength of the dollar.
"Silver, previously the star of the (precious metals) complex, has been the worst-affected with prices falling all week since reaching 7.64 dollars on Monday," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.
"A failure to penetrate upper resistance levels and a firmer dollar encouraged" liquidation.
On the London Bullion Market, silver prices dropped to 7.240 dollars per ounce at the late fixing Friday from 7.530 dollars the previous week.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM: Platinum prices fell in the wake of losses by gold and silver, while palladium steadied.
"Liquidation has also hit platinum," Naqvi said.
"Palladium, which has not gained as much to the upside as the rest of the complex, has been steadier."
By Friday, platinum prices fell to 868 dollars per ounce on the London Platinum and Palladium Market from 874 dollars the previous week.
Palladium prices stood at 185 dollars per ounce on Friday from 184 dollars.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices, except for copper, tumbled owing to a stronger dollar and expectations of greater supplies.
"Metals seem quick to respond to any euro weakness against the dollar," Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby said. Specialist website BaseMetals.com said prices fell as "the market anticipated increased supply in the days ahead".
By Friday, three-month copper prices rose to 3,293 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange from 3,254 dollars the previous week.
Three-month aluminium prices fell to 1,728 dollars per tonne Friday from 1,786 dollars.
Three-month nickel prices declined to 15,910 dollars per tonne on Friday from 16,600 dollars.
Three-month lead prices decreased to 968 dollars per tonne Friday from 976 dollars.
Three-month zinc prices slid to 1,297 dollars per tonne Friday from 1,335 dollars.
Three-month tin prices stood at 7,575 dollars per tonne Friday from 7,825 dollars.
OIL: World oil prices won support from concerns about strong fourth-quarter demand, a surprise drop in US crude oil inventories and fears of disruptions to supplies.
The US Department of Energy reported crude oil reserves fell 3.0 million barrels to 330.8 million in the week to June 3.
The DoE also reported gasoline (petrol) stockpiles had fallen by a modest 100,000 barrels to 217 million barrels during the ongoing US summer holiday driving season when consumption is at a peak.
Distillates rose by 1.3 million barrels, the DoE added, in line with analysts' consensus forecasts, amid fears of a shortage of heating oil during the next northern hemisphere winter.
Traders, meanwhile, looked ahead to a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna on June 15 to discuss production output levels.
Opec president Sheikh Ahmed Fahd al-Sabah this week proposed a hike of 500,000 barrels per day in the cartel's output ceiling at the meeting should prices remain too high.
The sheikh, who is Kuwait's energy minister, added that the price of oil should be five to eight dollars lower than current levels.
The 11 Opec members are producing in excess of 30 million barrels per day compared with an official fixed ceiling of 27.5 million bpd for the Opec-10 (excluding Iraq), agreed in March in the Iranian city of Isfahan.
Supporting prices towards the end of the week were rumours of pipeline sabotage in Iraq and concerns about the potential impact of a tropical storm on production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Fresh worries about possible supply disruptions came as the International Energy Agency held steady its estimate for world demand for oil this year at 84.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.2 percent from the 2004 figure.
But for the fourth quarter of 2005, the IEA raised its estimate of growth of world demand by 200,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day.
By Friday, New York's light sweet crude for July delivery rose to 54.45 dollars per barrel from 54.25 dollars the previous week.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for July delivery advanced to 53.73 dollars per barrel from 53.14 dollars.
RUBBER: Rubber prices climbed owing to higher demand and the ongoing rainy season in major Asian producing countries.
"It's been steadier again this week because of bad weather and good demand," an anonymous London trader said.
"The demand is mainly in the Far East" while in "Western Europe and America (it) is very slow".
In Osaka, the RSS 3 July contract rose to 162.20 US cents on Friday, from 161.80 cents a week earlier.
Singapore's RSS 3 July contract firmed to 142 US cents on Friday, from 141.25 cents.
COCOA: Cocoa futures fell amidst ongoing political uncertainty in leading producer Ivory Coast.
"Emerging political wavering" supported the market this week, Refco's Ann Prendergast said.
At least four people were shot dead and three injured in new ethnic clashes at Duekoue in the troubled cocoa-growing western Ivory Coast, continuing a feud that has killed more than 70 over the past two weeks and stirring fears the fragile peace will dissolve.
Ivory Coast has been split between rebel north and loyalist south since a failed coup in September 2002 plunged the country into all-out war.
UN forces fear a "long tribal war" in western Ivory Coast, a report on human rights in the divided country said this week.
On Liffe, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for September delivery decreased to 826 pounds per tonne on Friday from 835 pounds a week earlier.
On the CSCE, the New York futures market, the July contract stood at 1,409 dollars per tonne on Friday, from 1,425 dollars.
COFFEE: Coffee prices hit a fresh five-year high of 1,300 dollars per tonne on Monday in London - the highest level since December 1999 - on the back of prolonged dry weather in major producer Vietnam.
They later retreated owing to massive speculative fund selling amid favourable weather in leading producer Brazil.
"Some believe the... market is bearish due to the lack of any threat of frost in Brazil," analysts at the Sucden brokerage firm said.
Brazil and Vietnam are the world's two largest coffee producers.
Futures have jumped 70 percent in London since the start of 2005 and by 20 percent in New York, following six years of dampened prices.
On Liffe, Robusta quality for September delivery plunged to 1,166 dollars per tonne on Friday from 1,321 dollars a week earlier.
On New York's CSCE market, Arabica for July delivery slid to 113.40 cents per pound on Friday, from 124.25 cents.
SUGAR: Sugar prices stabilised amid steady buying.
The market has a "balanced supply-demand picture, despite some anxiety as to the ultimate size of the Brazil crop" after wet weather in March, Prendergast said.
By Friday on Liffe, the price of a tonne of white sugar for August delivery increased to 254.30 dollars from 249.40 dollars a week earlier.
On the CSCE in New York, a pound of unrefined sugar for July delivery stood at 8.79 cents on Friday from 8.87 cents.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Soya and grains prices mainly fell amid rainfall in producing regions of the United States and Australia.
On Liffe, wheat for July delivery stood at 68.75 pounds per tonne on Friday from 68.00 pounds a week earlier.
In Chicago, the price of wheat for July delivery fell to 316.25 cents per bushel Friday from 323.25 cents.
Maize for July delivery dropped to 213.50 cents per bushel on Friday from 217.50 cents.
Soyabeans for July delivery dipped to 671.50 cents per bushel on Friday from 672.50 cents.
July-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - firmed to 213.50 dollars per tonne on Friday from 213.30 dollars.
COTTON: Cotton prices dropped to the lowest point for three and a half months on speculative selling.
Cotton fell to 46.10 dollars per pound on Thursday in New York, the lowest level since mid-February.
"Cotton futures headed lower again following more speculative selling," Prendergast said.
"This is expected to continue for a couple more weeks."
New York's July contract fell to 46.65 cents per pound on Friday from 48.70 cents the previous week.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton slipped to 53.35 cents on Thursday from 53.95 cents a week earlier.
WOOL: Wool prices dipped in response to the appreciation of the Australian dollar against its US counterpart.
"The Australian Wool Market finished this week with prices 1.6 percent lower," noted the Australian Wool Industries Secretariat.
The Eastern index "fell in line with the strengthening exchange rate against US currency".
A stronger Australian dollar makes exports more expensive for buyers abroad.
The Australian Eastern index fell to 7.13 Australian dollars per kilo on Thursday, from 7.24 Australian dollars a week earlier.
The British Wooltops index eased to 394 pence from 396 pence.

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