Yen falls against dollar, Australian currency expected to struggle

13 Jun, 2005

The yen fell back against the dollar in the middle of last week after US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan suggested there would be no pause in the US central bank's rate-boosting cycle. The Australian dollar was meanwhile expected to struggle next week against a greenback boosted by better-than-expected US trade deficit data.
JAPANESE YEN: The Japanese currency stood at 107.42-45 to the dollar late Friday, slightly up from 107.87-90 to the dollar.
It peaked at 106.53 to the dollar on Wednesday amid market fears that US Federal Reserve might soon stop raising interest rates.
But, in his closely watched Congressional testimony on Thursday, Greenspan essentially repeated current policy on the outlook for growth and inflation, dealers said.
"Greenspan's comments suggested that the pace of rate hikes will remain unchanged at least until July, which relieved market participants," Mizuho Investors Securities currency strategist Hiroshi Sakurai said.
A stream of somewhat contradictory comments by Fed officials in recent weeks had left the market confused about whether the central bank would continue with its current "measured" pace of quarter-point rate increases to fight inflation.
The dollar moved higher in New York late Friday following the announcement that the US trade deficit in April widened to 57 billion dollars from a revised 53.6 billion dollars in March, within market expectations.
The market is expected to focus on the release of such US indictors next week as the producers price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index on Wednesday.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: The Australian dollar closed at 76.53 US cents on Friday, up almost a cent on the previous week's 75.56 US cents but still unable to consolidate above the 77 US cent mark.
Dealers said although the US trade deficit swelled to 57 billion US dollars in April, the result was not as bad as expected and would help lift the US currency.
Deutsche Bank foreign exchange strategist John Horner said the US data was bad news for the euro and there would be a knock-on impact on the Australian dollar.
The Aussie could be further hit if Reserve Bank of Australia governor Ian Macfarlane signals the bank has softened its hawkish monetary policy in a speech due to be delivered Tuesday.
The market will be closed Monday for a public holiday.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: The New Zealand dollar ended the week in local trading at 71.22 US cents, up sharply from 70.23 the previous week.
The currency made up lost ground early in the week on a weaker US dollar and was bolstered by a hawkish statement on interest rates by the New Zealand central bank on Thursday.
BNZ currency strategist Sue Trinh said the outlook heading into next week was for the kiwi to remain range-bound.
HONG KONG DOLLAR: Hong Kong's US-pegged dollar was at 7.7802 on Friday from 7.7827 the previous week.
INDONESIAN RUPIAH: The rupiah closed trading Friday slightly weaker at 9,595-9,600 to the dollar compared to the previous week's 9,580-9,590.
PHILIPPINE PESO: The peso traded lower at 54.859 to the dollar on Friday afternoon compared to 54.490 a week earlier.
SOUTH KOREAN WON: The won closed at 1,006.30 won per dollar Friday, compared with 1,007.80 won a week earlier.
A dealer with a South Korean bank said the exchange rate could fall to 1,004 won should the government stop intervening in the market to ease the won's appreciation, as business firms were expected to continue selling their dollar earnings.
TAIWAN DOLLAR: The Taiwan currency declined 0.02 percent over the week to end at 31.308 against the greenback Friday. It finished at 31.303 a week earlier.
THAI BAHT: The baht slightly appreciated against the US dollar over the past week due to a technical rebound amid a lackluster trading week, Bangkok Bank dealers said.
The Thai unit closed Friday at 40.63-65 baht to one dollar compared to a close of 40.70-75 the week before.

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