Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped one percent, rebounding from morning losses, as players took their cue from a fresh rise in rival US soyaoil to chase prices up for a second straight day. But dealers wondered if the key support level of 1,400 ringgit a tonne, recaptured after an 11-day gap, would hold as talk swirled that exports data for June 1 to 20 due next week were likely to show a sharp drop from a month ago.
Two cargo surveyors, Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS) and Intertek Testing Services (ITS), will issue on Monday estimates on Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first 20 days of June versus May 1 to 20.
Some dealers got wind of ITS's numbers on Friday, saying the cargo surveyor was expected to declare a maximum 850,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 994,180 tonnes.
"That's a big drop," said a palm oil trader. "It's really debatable whether we'll hold at 1,400 ringgit with such exports."
"In case we don't, then we're talking about returning to the old support of 1,380 ringgit, or even 1,350."
Soyoil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have been on the uptrend in the last 1 1/2 days, showing only a brief respite on Friday morning.
Soyaoil and palm oil compete for export destinations and their prices often move in step.
In Friday's e-CBOT trade, soyaoil's key July contract ended up 0.27 cent at 24.37 cents a pound, setting the stage for further gains when formal trading begins in Chicago at 1430 GMT.
In Kuala Lumpur, the benchmark third-month crude palm oil futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, September, ended Friday's trade up 14 ringgit at 1,409 ringgit ($370.79) a tonne.
Its high for the day was 1,410 ringgit and low 1,388.
Other traded contracts settled up 13 to 14 ringgit.
Trade crossed the 6,000-lot mark typically seen on busy days, with a final volume of 6,569 lots of 25 tonnes each.
In physical trade of crude palm oil on Friday, contracts for June and July saw bids at 1,410 ringgit a tonne in Malaysia's southern and central regions, against offers at 1,420.
Trades were reported at 1400-1410 ringgit for both months.
PALM OIL FUTURES:
June (south): 1420
Open/High/Low: 1393/1410/1388
Previous close: 1405
PALM OIL PHYSICALS:
August (third month): 1409
Previous settlement: 1395
FUTURES: Benchmark third-month August up 14 ringgit at 1,409 ringgit ($370.79) a tonne.
PHYSICALS: Offers for June south up 15 ringgit at 1,420 ringgit a tonne.