Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures reached a month low on Thursday on waning concerns about the US soyabean crop after rains in Illinois and forecasts for more outweighed bullish USDA stocks data, traders said. The new-crop November contract has dropped 95-3/4 cents since last on Friday closing at $6.66-1/4 on Thursday, down 22-3/4, after breaching its 50-moving average $6.64-1/2 in the session.
"Weather and the idea there's a little better chance for rain in Illinois there are maybe three chances for rain over the next week," were supportive, said Anne Frick, Prudential Securities.
"Although I still didn't see any forecast for any drought breaking amounts," she added. Scattered showers of 0.25 to 1.0 inch fell across northern Illinois to southern Michigan.
Rains of similar amounts fell through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and north-west Missouri, said Meteorlogix weather service. Some forecasters increased their rain coverage for the Midwest by 5 percent in their noon weather updates, traders said.
Easing crop fears triggered more long liquidation with funds selling 6,000-7,000 soya contracts. The final minutes of trade turned more volatile amid end-of-the-positioning, rebounding slightly then falling, traders said.
USDA said US June 1 soyabean stocks were at 699.644 million bushels, below the average trade estimate for 716 bushels. "The bean stocks are still showing a bigger consumption or an unexplained disappearance.
I think it takes your old-crop carryout down 20 million bushels," said Roy Huckabay, an analyst with The Linn Group in Chicago.
Many believe the government overstated the US 2004 soya crop. Little direction stemmed from the government's planting acres figure or weekly export sales data.
The US 2005 soyabean plantings were put at 73.303 million acres, above the average trade estimate for 73.078 million acres but below USA's March estimate for 73.9 million.
USDA reported weekly export sales of US soyabeans at 170,200 tonnes, above trade expectations for 50,000 to 100,000 tonnes. There were slightly larger-than-expected deliveries of 484 lots against the July contract on Thursday, first notice day.
The biggest stopper was a customer of Tenneco Inc, at 137 lots, likely a commercial. Midwest cash basis bids were mixed on Thursday, with processors firming their basis to attract more sales while river bids were weak.
Export business remained light, with importers looking to South America for soyabeans. There were no July contracts posted for delivery. The South American soya contract closed 8 cents lower to 12 cents higher, with July down 8 at $6.39 per bushel.
The soya products markets followed the weakness in soyabeans. July soyameal was down $3.20 per ton at $207 and the deferreds were 20 cents to $6.80 lower.
July soyaoil was down 0.93 cent at 23.61 cents per lb., slipping through its 20-day moving average of 24.08. The deferreds were 0.15 to 1.02 lower.
Export sales from last week were supportive for soyameal and neutral for soyaoil. The USDA on Thursday that US soyameal was 177,500 tonnes, above trade expectations for 35,000 to 70,000 tonnes.
US soyaoil were at 5,900 tonnes, within trade expectations for 2,000 to 6,000 tonnes. No deliveries posted against the July soyameal or soyaoil contract on Thursday was somewhat supportive.
Traders were expecting few, if any, meal and oil deliveries. Malaysian palm oil futures ended down 1 percent on Thursday, surrendering gains as players booked profits after weak export estimates for June.