Ukraine's leading agriculture constancy, UkAgroConsult, on Tuesday cut its 2005 grain crop forecast by three percent, or 1.1 million tonnes, to 34.564 million from 35.671 million a month. "Unfavourable weather in May-June and possible high losses during the harvesting due to old machinery are the main reasons for the decrease in outlook," UkAgroConsult director Seihyo Feofilov told Reuters.
The constancy put the 2005 harvest at 35.127 million tonnes in May, 35.162 million in April, 35.364 million in March and 35.854 million in February. Analysts have said Ukraine harvested 36.307 million tonnes of grain in 2004 while government figures put the harvest at a record 41.8 million.
Ukraine's government has said the country plans to harvest about 37 million tonnes of grain in 2005.
UkAgroConsult cut its wheat crop outlook by 500,000 tonnes to 17.284 million tonnes from 17.729 million in June and 17.444 million in May.
The constancy also cut the barley harvest forecast by 242,000 tonnes to 8.628 million in July from 8.870 million in June, 8.655 million in May and 8.767 million in April. In March, it forecast the barley harvest at 8.812 million tonnes.
UkAgroConsult revised down its forecast for oats to 797,000 tonnes from 892,000, for peas to 569,000 from 724,000 and for millet to 181,000 from 383,000 a month.
Analysts also said Ukraine was grain exports were likely to fall to between 10.0 and 10.5 million tonnes in the 2005/06 July-June season from about 11.3 million in 2004/05. The constancy said wheat exports could reach 4.8 million tonnes to 5.2 million, while sales of barley could total 3.2 to 3.4 million tonnes.
Ukraine is likely to export 4.2 million tonnes of wheat and 3.85 million tonnes of barley in 2004/05.
UkAgroConsult said last month wheat and barley would dominate Ukraine's grain exports in the 2005/06 season and sales would amount to 82 percent of exports.
But they also predicted "fierce" competition on the world wheat market this season. Another constancy, Kiev-based ProAgro, said on Monday Ukraine was likely to dominate the world export feed barley market in the first half of the 2005/06 season.
They said Ukraine's barley exports could be at 3.2 million tonnes in the 2005/06 July-June season compared with a record 4.25 million in 2004/05.