Low-cost financing is not tempting many US companies to issue long-maturity debt, the latest sign of caution by investors and companies that the US economic expansion could face headwinds in the years ahead.
Even as corporate borrowing costs for 30-year debt approach all-time lows, issuance of 30-year bonds remains a fraction of the levels seen in recent years, according to Dealogic, an investment banking research firm.
Companies have sold about $12.9 billion of 30-year bonds so far this year, up from $11.2 billion for all of 2004, but well below the recent peak of $29.6 billion in 2002, Dealogic said.
"Maybe the goal on the part of the corporate sector is to have the balance sheet in good enough shape and sufficient cash on hand to weather the next downturn," said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, in a recent report.
Normally, companies would have a strong incentive to lock in long-term funding now since rates on long-maturity bonds have been falling, even as short-term rates rise.
Those declining long rates, described as a "conundrum" by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, may be happening precisely because corporate demand for long-term debt is weak, Rosenberg said.
BUYERS POUNCE ON WAL-MART BONDS:
In one sign of that, yearly growth in nonfinancial corporate bonds has plunged to just 1.9 percent from 5.3 percent a year ago and more than 10 percent five years ago, Rosenberg said.
The debt slowdown may reflect caution about the economic expansion, now entering its mature stage, Rosenberg said. Otherwise, companies would likely be lining up to issue 30-year debt or longer on August 26, rates, he said.
Yields on 30-year corporate debt have plunged to about 5.42 percent on average from 7.02 percent in 2001 and 6.17 percent in 2002, according to Merrill Lynch. The all-time low recorded by Merrill was 5.24 percent in June 2003. Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the world's biggest retailer, this week sold $2.5 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of just 5.278 percent.
Despite coming to market in one of the slowest periods of the year, the deal attracted about $4.5 billion of orders, likely because of the relative scarcity of 30-year bonds in the market, investors said.
"The fact that the US Treasury decided to begin issuing 30-year bonds in February of next year gives some indication that it's a sector of the market that has more demand than supply," said Ben Matthews, portfolio manager at John Hancock Funds in Boston.
30-YEAR DEBT VOLATILE:
The US government stopped issuing 30-year bonds in October 2001 when an expected government surplus reduced borrowing needs.
That has left scant supply for investors like pension funds, which need long-maturity investments to match their payouts. Pension funds were big buyers of Wal-Mart's offering, syndicate officials said.
Though double-A rated Wal-Mart had little trouble selling 30-year debt, lower-rated companies may be avoiding long maturities because demand would not be as strong, said Scott MacDonald, director of research at. Aladdin Capital in Stamford, Connecticut.
"If you are in the bargain basement of credits ... it's a little harder sell to go long," MacDonald said.
One reason is that a company's credit worth can change dramatically over three decades. Ford Motor Co, whose ratings were cut to junk this week by Moody's Investors Service, had top triple-A ratings 25 years ago.
Uncertainty about credit quality, interest rates or inflation can make prices on long-maturity bonds volatile.
"Thirty-year bonds had demonstrably more volatility throughout the course of the year," MacDonald said. "Once you get a grain of uncertainty in the market, 30-year paper tends to soften quicker."
For investors, "30 years has not been the sweet spot in the market," he said.