Opec favouring no change in oil output

20 Sep, 2005

Opec producers on Monday looked set to postpone action on extra crude supply, falling short of expectations among some consumer countries for immediate relief from fuel price inflation.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was near a consensus in holding back spare reserves until needed in a world market short of refined product, rather than Opec crude, ministers said.
"We will collectively make a pledge to have the spare capacity available if needed, but I don't believe it is needed," said Nigerian Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru.
"We hope that will assure the market. We are working on the exact wording."
Cartel President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said Opec was "moving toward" a consensus on that policy.
Ministers in a first closed session agreed a long-term strategy plan that seeks to provide transparency about how it operates. No decision was made on output.
Oil prices have eased from a record $70.85 a barrel in the three weeks since Hurricane Katrina hit US Gulf oil facilities.
But US crude by 1510 GMT on Monday rebounded to $3.75 to $66.75 a barrel as another tropical storm threatened the region, putting pressure back on Opec at least to make a gesture on supply.
UK Finance Minister Gordon Brown, representing the European Union, last week called on Opec to release an extra 500,000 barrels daily.
But Sheikh Ahmad said Opec was near deal that would see a vow to release crude from 2 million bpd of spare capacity only when it is required.
Official output quotas for 10 member countries would be kept unchanged at 28 million bpd.
The Opec president said an alternative option, with less support, would see official limits raised by 500,000 bpd to 28.5 million with a further 500,000 bpd increase at his discretion.
Several ministers said they were opposed to higher output quotas when global refining capacity is at full stretch and unable to process more crude.
"If nobody wants to buy it why should we increase the output ceiling," said Libyan Energy Minister Fathi Omar Bin Shatwan. "The problem is a shortage of refining capacity."
Opec production, including 2 million bpd from Iraq, is already at a 25-year high of over 30 million bpd and crude inventories are ample.
Katrina's assault on US Gulf refineries has left nearly 900,000 barrels a day, about a tenth of US refining plant, offline in the world's biggest consumer.
Washington found buyers for only 11 million barrels of the 30 million it offered from national emergency crude reserves after Katrina because refineries could not use the oil.
Opec appears to be trying to tread a fine line between reassuring consumer countries that spare capacity is readily available without forcing unnecessary supply on to the market.
"Opec wants to be perceived as part of the solution, not part of the problem," said consultant Yasser Elguindi of Medley Global Advisors. "But they don't want to send the wrong signal to the market. They want to continue a loose supply policy, meaning that if there's a crude problem, which there isn't now, they can supply it."

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