SovEcon provisionally forecasts Russia's winter grain area to be sown for the 2006 harvest at a record low of 12.3-12.85 million hectares compared with 13.9 million hectares last year.
Dry weather and very low topsoil moisture reserves are raising a growing concern about the development of winter plantings before dormancy and may make them vulnerable to adverse weather during winter.
Dry weather in August and September in European Russia has seriously slowed down the winter grain sowing.
It particularly concerns the Southern federal district, which are the Russian breadbasket and major wheat producing and exporting area.
By September 20, large and medium-sized farms in Restive and Volgograd regions had completed sowing at some 57-58 percent of last year. Normally, winter sowing in these regions is completed by the end of September (Table 1).
Though a large-scale sowing campaign in the Krasnodar and Stavropol regions usually begins late September, dry weather and reduced topsoil moisture reserves seem to delay the 2005 sowing in these regions as well.
In the Central and Privolzhsk federal districts, the winter sowing has been practically completed. The sown area remains close to last year. However, continued dry weather is stressing the development of the plants.
At the current stage, Russia's winter grain plantings area is forecast at 12.3-12.85 million hectares, some 1.0-1.5 million hectares below last year's.
The most serious decline is expected in the southern regions, especially in Restive and Volgograd.
In addition, a deficit of soil moisture is likely to bring about an increase in the area with poorly developed plants (non-sprouted and uneven plantings) that makes them more vulnerable to adverse weather during winter.
In 2004, winter grains accounted for nearly 40 percent of Russia's total grain production, 57 percent of Russia's wheat output, and virtually all its rye.