World wheat consumption is expected to outstrip supply again in 2005/06, causing a further drawdown in global stocks, but prices may not rise in tandem as inventories among major exporters remain robust, analyst Strategie Grains said on Wednesday.
There will be significant production swings among the world's major wheat players however, which will cause shifts in trading patterns this season, Strategie Grains' Andree Defois told an industry conference in the Moroccan city of Marrakesh.
Several of the world's big exporters are facing a drop in production, largely due to the drought over the northern hemisphere summer.
Defois put European Union wheat output at 122.9 million tonnes against 136.3 million last season. In addition, there will be significant crop shortfalls in north Africa - Morocco is expected to harvest 2.5 million tones against 5.5 million last season, Algeria 1.5 million versus 2.6 million and Tunisia 1.45 million against 1.7 million tonnes in 2004/05.