British finance minister Gordon Brown is not expected to raise taxes significantly next year despite a deterioration in public finances, a Reuters poll shows.
But analysts said taxes will have to rise eventually to correct the growing UK public deficit, probably in his 2007 budget, provided growth has picked up.
The poll showed 31 of the 42 economists surveyed between September 27-29 do not expect taxes to rise significantly next year.
Those that do expect tax increases gave forecasts ranging from two to 10 billion pounds. "I don't expect him (Gordon Brown) to seriously raise taxes next year as the economy will be too weak and I think he would recognise that," said Ben Broadbent at Goldman Sachs.
The Chancellor has given himself some breathing space by deciding to move the start date of the current economic cycle - which ends in early 2006 - to 1997 from 1999 and incorporating budget surpluses from that period.
In doing so, Brown has given himself about an extra 12 billion pounds leeway, meaning he is less likely to break his golden fiscal rule of borrowing only to invest over the cycle.
Eighteen out of the 28 economists who answered the question said there was less than a 50 percent chance that Brown would break his rule, with many suggesting he would adjust the criteria again, if necessary, to avoid doing so.