Brazil's 2005/06 (October-September) soyabean crop is forecast at a record 56.7 million to 58.6 million tonnes, up from the 51.1 million harvested last season, despite an expected fall in area, the agriculture ministry said on Thursday.
In its first of six annual forecasts of the next harvest, the ministry's crop supply agency, Conab, said Brazil's total grain output including soya would grow significantly from last year, which suffered from a severe drought in the south.
"If weather conditions are normal, yields next crop will be greater," the executive secretary of Conab, Luiz Carlos Guedes Pinto, told journalists.
But the planted area for soyabeans in Brazil would fall to 21.5 million to 22.2 million hectares (53 million to 55 million acres) from 23.3 million hectares in 2004/05, Conab said, the first time in several years.
"The principal commodities that Brazil exports (such as soya) have seen prices fall, with the appreciation of the real. This has a negative effect," Guedes said.
Last season's drought in the south, heavy producer debts as well as tight farm credit, and a strong real against the dollar have combined to create what many are calling a crisis in Brazil's soya sector.
On September 12, the US Department of Agriculture downwardly revised Brazil's new soya crop to 60 million tonnes from 62 million previously. Local private sector analysts' views vary widely from around 52 million to nearly 60 million tonnes.
About 10 percent of the new soya crop has been planted, according to analysts. The planting season continues through December.
Conab said Brazil's main summer corn crop was projected at 31.7 million to 32.5 million tonnes, up from 27.3 million harvested last season.
Conab put the new cotton crop at 908,000 to 1 million tonnes of lint compared with 1.3 million in 2004/05.
The new wheat crop that is finishing harvest in southern Brazil is forecast at 4.9 million tonnes, well down from the near record 5.8 million last season.
Brazil's total grains output for the 2005/06 crop was estimated at 121.5 million to 124.8 million tonnes, up from the drought-parched 113.5 million tonnes harvested last season.
But the total planted area for grains should fall across Brazil to 46.1 million to 47.2 million hectares from 48.9 million last year.