Oil edges higher as cold weather creeps into US

22 Nov, 2005

Oil rebounded on Monday from near five-month lows, boosted by chillier weather in the United States despite assurances that Opec would not consider cutting output unless prices fell further.
US crude for January rose to $57.65 a barrel, up 44 cents. The December contract expired on Friday after touching a new five-month low of $55.40 a barrel.
London Brent crude traded up 57 cents to $55.45. "It's gotten colder in the US and it has some impact on prices," said Tony Nunnery, a manager at Japan's Mitsubishi Corp's international petroleum business unit. Private forecaster AccuWeather said last week that the US Northeast, where 80 percent of the nation's heating oil is consumed, will see temperatures 2 degrees Fahrenheit lower than normal this winter.
Conditions on Sunday were a few degrees below normal, The Weather Channel web site (www.weather.com) showed.
In Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer and a major user of kerosene for home heating in the north, conditions are likely to be colder than normal this week, the Japanese Meteorological Agency said.
Nunnery said the rollover of the frontmonth contract to January might have encouraged buying.
"The overall sentiment is still bearish and I don't think prices will break the resistance of $58.00-$58.65 this week. That said, I think the colder weather will keep levels above $55."
Unseasonably warm temperatures thus far have allowed the oil industry to replenish US stockpiles of oil and oil products badly depleted by a savage hurricane season, with demand for heating oil well below normal levels in recent weeks.
Rising stocks and fears that higher costs are curbing consumption have sent prices spiralling lower for nearly three months, taking them $14 below their end-August peak of $70.85.
Heating oil supplies stand around 8 percent higher than last year, while commercial crude oil stocks are 12 percent higher, even with three refineries totalling just under 5 percent of US capacity remain offline due to hurricane damage.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Opec oil exporters said the cartel would not consider a cut in output at next month's meeting unless crude prices fell rapidly.
"Supply is more than demand and the market has stabilised. Is there a need to take further measures? I don't think so," Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Nerima said on Saturday.
Opec President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sarah added: "I don't think there is an idea to cut production in our December meeting unless prices will be in a very bad situation.

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