Canadian bonds slightly changed

27 Nov, 2005

With the bigger US treasury market open for half the session, there was little influence on Canadian bonds, which finished just about unchanged with a negative bias on Friday.
In addition to the political developments next week, Canada is scheduled to release numbers on November's labour market and third quarter economic growth.
Neither report is expected to detract from the market's expectation that the Bank of Canada will raise rates at least twice more in the current tightening campaign.
The central bank has boosted its overnight interest rate twice since early September. The rate is now at 3 percent, while the comparable US fed funds rate is 4 percent.
The market may get more tips on the economic outlook when Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge speaks in Toronto on Monday on "Investing in Productivity." His remarks will be published at 8:30 am.
The two-year bond dipped 2 Canadian cents to C$98.19 to yield 3.697 percent, while the 10-year bond eased 3 Canadian cents to C$103.80 to yield 4.014 percent.
The yield spread between the two-year and 10-year bond flattened to 31.7 basis points from 32.3 basis points. The 30-year bond inched up 17 Canadian cents to C$115.13 to yield 4.136 percent. The three-month when-issued T-bill yielded 3.31 percent, up from 3.30 percent at the previous close.
The Canadian dollar edged to its highest finish against the US dollar in about a month on Friday. The Canadian currency finished at C$1.1694 to the US dollar, or 85.51 US cents, up from C$1.1718 to the US dollar, or 85.34 US cents, at Thursday's close.
Political risks from the looming defeat of the minority Liberal government have had little impact on the Canadian dollar in recent sessions because of offsetting economic fundamentals.
"It's hard to imagine investors wanting to sell the Canadian dollar based on the election, given the other factors that seem to be a lot more important right now, that being merger and acquisition flows, natural gas or energy prices," said Jeremy Friesen, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
The minority Liberal government could fall next week, as the vote on an opposition motion of non-confidence was set for 6:30 pm EST on Monday. If the motion passes, it will trigger a general election, probably in January.

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