Oil prices rebound, gold nears 500 dollars per ounce for first time in 18 years

27 Nov, 2005

World oil prices rallied this week as temperatures dropped in the United States and western Europe, sparking demand for heating fuel. Gold prices closed in on 500 dollars per ounce for the first time in 18 years while aluminium struck the highest level for a decade.
The week's trading ended on Wednesday in the United States owing to the Thanksgiving holiday. Consequently London saw shortened trading hours on Thursday and Friday.
The Commodities Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities rose to 314.80 points on Friday from 312.40 points the previous week.
In London on Friday, prices reached 497.05 dollars per ounce, the best value since December of that year.
"In the market's current condition, 500 dollars now looks within easy reach although a test of the psychological level might be the catalyst for hefty profit-taking," said James Moore, an analyst.
Gold is seen as a safe haven against high inflation.
On the London Bullion Market, gold prices jumped to 495.90 dollars per ounce at the late fixing on Friday from 485.85 dollars the previous week.
Silver hit 8.23 dollars per ounce on Tuesday, the highest level since April 4, 2004.
"The bullish tone in the base and precious complexes looks set to propel silver higher in the coming sessions," Moore said.
In addition to being key in jewellery manufacturing, silver is widely used by industry, particularly by the photographic and dental sectors.
On the London Bullion Market, silver prices rose to 8.20 dollars per ounce at the late fixing Friday from 8.11 dollars the previous week.
Palladium hit 268 dollars per ounce on Monday, a value last achieved in April 2004. The metal is profiting from forecasts of shrinking supplies.
Palladium "could face some near term pressure given its recent impressive moves - up almost 20 percent since the beginning of this month," Barclays Capital analyst Yingxi Yu said. Platinum prices climbed after racing to the highest point in almost 26 years the previous week on strong speculative buying.
Platinum prices jumped by 7.0 percent in two weeks to reach 994 dollars per ounce on November 17.
"For now consolidation within the 965-85 dollar area remains the theme although with gold building for a test of 500 dollars another push (by platinum) towards 1000 dollars could be on the cards," Moore said.
On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum climbed to 987 dollars per ounce at the late fixing Friday, from 979 dollars the previous week.
Palladium stood at 257 dollars per ounce, from 259.50 dollars.
Aluminium reached 2,096 dollars on Thursday owing to strong buying by investment funds.
Copper eased after touching a historic high of 4,224 dollars per tonne on November 18.
"Although it looks like prices may well head higher still, the whole metals complex looks increasingly vulnerable," said William Adams, an analyst at specialist website BaseMetals.com.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) was meanwhile monitoring China's potential copper trading scandal as part of its normal work, but has not held talks with Chinese authorities over the issue, the organisation's chief said Tuesday.
LME chief executive Simon Heale denied there had been any contact between the LME and the Chinese government amid mounting speculation that Beijing is desperately trying to stem losses from bad trades that could costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
Markets had the previous week seized on reports that Liu Qibing, a trader working on behalf of China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB), went missing after his bets on copper trades went bad.
Most traders believe that Liu's short position - the selling of copper he did not have in the hope of buying it back more cheaply in the future - ranges between 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes although some Chinese dealers have put the figure at 600,000 tonnes. By Friday, three-month copper prices on the LME fell to 4,194 dollars per tonne from 4,220 dollars the previous week.
Three-month aluminium prices rose to 2,086 dollars per tonne from 2,042.50 dollars.
Three-month nickel prices gained to 12,975 dollars per tonne from 11,950 dollars.
Three-month lead prices dropped to 992.50 dollars per tonne from 997 dollars.
Three-month zinc prices increased to 1,661 dollars per tonne from 1,645 dollars.
Three-month tin prices advanced to 6,150 dollars per tonne from 6,055 dollars.
Crude futures ended more than a dollar higher on both sides of the Atlantic on Tuesday as falling temperatures across the United States and Europe prompted predictions of a sharp rise in demand for heating fuel.
However they began falling a day later after data revealed strong rises in US crude inventories.
US inventories of crude oil, gasoline and distillate products all rose during the week ending November 18, the Department of Energy had said on Wednesday.
Crude stocks climbed by 400,000 barrels for the week ended November 18 to total 321.8 million, the DoE said. That was in line with analysts' forecasts.
Motor gasoline, or petrol, stocks rose 200,000 barrels to total 200.4 million barrels - much less than expected.
Inventories of distillate supplies, which are used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, rose for a second straight week by 1.1 million barrels to 124.5 million, nearly double the amount forecast.
"Current prices are still possibly overpriced compared to historical stock levels and current supply," Sucden analysts said. "However with the shock of 70-dollar oil still affecting the market and the dawning realisation that the end of cheap oil is over the market remains supported."
After hitting a record high point of 70.85 dollars per barrel in New York on August 30, oil prices fell strongly to reflect unusually mild weather during October and much of November. New York's light sweet crude for January delivery gained to 58.71 dollars per barrel on Wednesday from 57.21 dollars the previous Friday.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for January delivery rose to 55.21 dollars per barrel from 54.81 dollars.
On TOCOM, Tokyo's commodity exchange, natural rubber for February delivery climbed to 197.80 yen on Friday, from 188 yen a week earlier.
Singapore's RSS 3 January contract rose to 163.75 cents on Friday, from 158.50 cents the previous week.
The market "remains under pressure ahead of an expected bumper crop from Ivory Coast next year", Sucden analysts said.
On Liffe, London's futures exchange run by Euronext, the price of cocoa for March delivery slipped to 858 pounds on Friday, from 866 pounds a week earlier.
On the New York Board of Trade (NYBoT), the March contract eased to 1,413 dollars per tonne on Wednesday from 1,425 dollars the previous Friday.
"The market remains caught between light industry and speculative buying and trade selling," Sucden analysts said.
On Liffe, Robusta quality for January slid to 1,043 dollars per tonne on Friday, from 1,049 dollars a week earlier.
On NYBoT, Arabica for March delivery stood at 101.30 cents per pound on Wednesday, from 100.30 cents the previous Friday.
In a third day of marathon talks, EU farm ministers agreed on Thursday to the sugar sector overhaul.
The EU had little choice other than to make broad reforms to its sector regime after the World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruled it illegal earlier this year following a complaint from Australia, Brazil and Thailand.
At the moment, the EU offers a guaranteed price for sugar that is paid for, in effect, by consumers, with Brussels buying from producers at about three times the average world market price.
The reform package, which goes into effect in 2006, will slash the guaranteed price by 36 percent and make 6.3 billion euros (7.4 billion dollars) available to EU sugar farmers and refiners over the four years during which the reform is phased in.
By Friday on Liffe, the price of a tonne of white sugar for March delivery gained to 300.40 dollars, from 298.80 dollars a week earlier.
On NYBot, the price of unrefined sugar for March delivery advanced to 12.15 US cents on Wednesday, from 12.00 cents the previous Friday.
On Liffe, the price of a tonne of wheat for January delivery dipped to 70.00 pounds late on Thursday, from 70.15 pounds the previous Thursday.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, the price of wheat for December delivery eased to 2.97 dollars per bushel on Wednesday, from 3.02 dollars the previous Friday.
Maize for December delivery fell to 1.9075 dollars per bushel on Wednesday, from 1.9125 dollars.
Soyabeans for January delivery dropped to 5.62 dollars per bushel, from 5.6975 dollars.
December-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - stood at 170.70 dollars per tonne, from 172.20 dollars.
On the New York Cotton Exchange (NYCE), the December contract slid to 52.61 US cents per pound on Wednesday, from 52.63 cents a week the previous Friday.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton stood at 56.20 cents on Thursday, from 56.90 cents a week earlier.
The Australian Eastern index eased to 6.48 Australian dollars per kilo on Thursday from 6.51 dollars the previous week.
The British Wooltops index rose to 399 pence on Thursday from 393 pence a week earlier.

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