Asian currencies: peso and rupiah sparkle

09 Dec, 2005

The Indonesian rupiah rose sharply and the Philippine peso hit a 2-1/2-year high on Thursday as local sentiment stayed bullish, while other Asian currencies drew some support from a recovery in Japan's battered yen.
The Malaysian ringgit edged up to its strongest level in about 1-1/2 months on expectations of further interest rate rises.
The peso added more than half a percent from Wednesday's close to peak at 53.67 per dollar, its highest since July 2003, driven by remittances, which are expected to hit a record of about $10.3 billion this year.
Remittances from foreign workers are traditionally strong in the run up to Christmas.
Dealers said the peso's rise gathered momentum after it broke through a key resistance level in the 53.80 area.
"We've seen foreign funds selling the dollar heavily this morning," said a Manila-based dealer. "They're bullish on the peso - remittances are likely to remain strong and there could be a credit upgrade. We see the peso heading towards 50, possibly by the end of the year."
The rupiah gained as much as 0.9 percent from late Asian trade on Wednesday to hit a four-month high at about 9,770 per dollar.
This week's changes to top economic positions in the cabinet, a stock market rally and growing confidence that Indonesia's economy is on the right track has boosted rupiah sentiment.
Despite Tuesday's smaller-than-expected interest rate rise of 50 basis points, traders said the currency retained its appeal due to its high yields.
"The stock market in Indonesia has been doing better, and we've had a new change in leadership which is giving the market confidence that Indonesia will continue to fight inflation," said Thio Chin Loo, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.
"The market is not ruling out further rate hikes and that makes the rupiah quite attractive as a high yielding currency."
Dealers said this week has seen strong inflows of cash from foreign investors keen on buying Indonesian stocks and bonds.
The South Korean won rose slightly to 1,033.7 per dollar, taking its cue from modest gains in the yen and largely ignoring an unexpected rise in Korean interest rates.
The Bank of Korea raised the overnight call rate target for the second time in three months on Thursday, lifting it to 3.75 percent from 3.50 percent, to pre-empt a rise in inflation.
"I'm positive on the won against the yen. If the Bank of Korea continues to hike rates and the Bank of Japan does not, then there is every reason to go for the won against the yen," said BNP Paribas' Thio.
The ringgit strengthened to a 1-1/2 month high at about 3.7720, helped by expectations of further interest rate increases in Malaysia, traders said.
The ringgit has been kept on a tight leash by the central bank since its peg against the dollar was abandoned on July 21.
Bank Negara lifted its overnight policy rate to 3.0 percent from 2.7 percent last week, the first increase in seven years, and dealers said the central bank was now letting the currency respond to market expectations rates would rise again.
"The ringgit is appreciating and the rate rise last week probably has something to do with it," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur.

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