China's alumina production is likely to jump nearly 30 percent to 11 million tonnes in 2006 due to expanded capacity, an industry analyst said on Friday.
Rising production may reduce demand for imported alumina from China, the world's largest buyer of spot alumina, and weigh on prices.
Wang Feihong, senior analyst for state-owned research group Antaike, said alumina capacity in China would rise above 17 million tonnes by 2010, against 10 million this year.
"Over the next five to six years, China's output will see a more than 20 percent rise," Wang said, referring to annual growth rates.
He said high prices were triggering existing alumina producers to expand capacity and investors to build new refineries.
Under current planned projects, nearly 12 million tonnes of alumina capacity was likely to be built, of which 6.4 million tonnes would come on stream between 2005 and 2006, Wang told delegates at the China Aluminium Forum in Kunming city in China's south-western Yunnan province.
China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association sees China's alumina production rising 21 percent to 8.5 million tonnes in 2005, said Pan Jiazhu, the association's vice president.
The capacity of Aluminium Corp of China Ltd, the country's dominant producer of alumina, will rise to 12 million tonnes by 2010 from 8.5 million in 2005, the association said.
Other Chinese alumina refineries that have combined capacity of one million tonnes in 2005 will boost capacity to five million tonnes by 2010.