The world may have a small coffee production surplus in 2006/07 (October-September) after a 7-million 60-kg bag deficit the year before as output recovers in Vietnam and Brazil, the International Coffee Organisation said on Tuesday.
The global 2006/07 harvest in the 2006/07 may grow to 118 to 122 million 60-kg bags, up from an estimated 108 million bags in 2005/06, the London-based ICO said in a monthly report. It sees consumption rising to over 118 million bags from 115 million.
"In conclusion, we can now see a balance between production and consumption," the ICO said in the report.
Coffee prices have been volatile this year as the world production balance turned from surplus to deficit because of a drop in production in Vietnam and Brazil.
Vietnam is the world's top robusta grower and Brazil provides the most arabica. Robusta is up about 60 percent so far in 2005 but arabica has slipped around six percent.
This year was an "off" year in Brazil's two-year production cycle while Vietnam's 2005/06 harvest was damaged by drought earlier in the year and is now delayed by rains.
It estimated opening stocks in exporting countries for the 2004/05 season were 28.71 million bags but has not yet released a number for 2005/06.
Certified stocks for the Liffe and NYBOT exchanges totalled 21.5 million bags at the end of October.