The proposed construction of Kalabagh dam has triggered ripples on the national scene even President Musharraf had to face unexpected resistance from his own Muslim League. Ostensibly, signals from the corridors of power suggest that a decision has either been already made on building the 'most controversial' project of the country, or it would be announced before Eid ul Azha.
He had the courage, unlike his predecessors, to have an audience with Sindh journalists and think tanks few years back and again this week to allay their deep-rooted concerns about the project.
Whether or not the decision is made, the controversy has activated mainstream political parties and nationalists, who otherwise, after the tremor, had gone into hibernation.
On the opposition front, the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy has linked any decision on the reservoir to national consensus while the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal has brushed aside the whole affair at this juncture, a bid to divert public attention from real issues, confronting the country.
Generally speaking, two theories are being attributed to this sudden hobnobbing. These are that President Musharraf wants new battle line to be drawn in the run-up to the possible election next year, and that he has decided that it is now or never situation vis-à-vis the dam.
How far these two theories are correct at present unclear. It is needless to say that division in the ruling coalition and the opposition is wide and clear. To whose benefit these divisions can go, it would take time to be figured out.
As for President Musharraf, to keep the ruling alliance intact is of paramount importance. But he can only be successful if he abandons the idea of the reservoir. It would be an unprecedented political victory for him, if he makes the announcement and still the alliance keeps floating.
In case of retreat from his present position on the dam, can President Musharraf impede the opposition from cashing in on this possible reversal?
Some analysts said that the rulers had pushed the issue to a point of no return, any second thought would directly benefit both the opposition parties and the nationalists. "They see President Musharraf in a catch-22 situation".
It goes without saying that the present situation regarding the proposed project would not persist any longer and some announcement is expected within weeks. And it remains to be seen, does Musharraf gain from it, as he did consequent to the Legal Framework Order crisis.