Soya rallies above key averages, meal supports

04 Mar, 2006

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) soyabean market rallied on Thursday, surpassing its 100- and 50-day moving averages, on a technical bounce after its recent fall, traders said.
"Local traders drove the market into buy-stops it's all money," said one floor broker, referring to a wave of fresh commodity fund buying.
Strength stemmed from the soyameal pit, which was also due for a bounce after falling to a three-month low this week. Adding support were preliminary tests that suggested some flamingos that recently died in the Bahamas did not have bird flu - easing early concerns about the deadly virus spreading to the United States, traders said. Conclusive tests have not been completed, government officials said.
As bird flu spreads across Europe, Asia and the Middle East, people are avoiding eating poultry because of fears they could contract the disease despite assurances that proper cooking kills the flu virus.
March soya closed 13-1/2 cents higher at $5.91 per bushel and May was up 13 at $6.04 - above its 100-day MA of $5.98-1/2 and 50-day MA of $6.02-1/2.
March soyameal settled $3.80 per ton higher at $176.20 and May was up $3.50 at $178.10.
"People are short beans, they're not long beans so there's no liquidation - it led to a bit of short covering," said Roy Huckabay, analyst with The Linn Group in Chicago.
Traders were also unwinding wheat/soyabean spreads, giving soya a boost, he added.
US weekly export sales were close to estimates, so little support stemmed from the data, traders said. The US Agriculture Department said last week's soyabean export sales were 552,400 tonnes (old and new crop), compared with estimates for 350,000 to 550,000 tonnes.
China booked 250,500 tonnes of old-crop soya, 32 percent of the total old-crop sales of 367,400 tonnes.
The export pace continues to lag a year ago, which will only mean more beans by the end of marketing year on August 31.
But exporters said two to three cargoes of US soyabeans for March shipment were sold out of the Gulf on Wednesday, which sent CIF and FOB values higher.
There was another round of big March soya deliveries, 2,146 lots, reminders of abundant US supplies. But there was a strong commercial stopper, with the Term house account taking 955 lots.
CBOT soya registrations were unchanged at 3,859 lots.
Midwest spot cash basis bids for soya were firm early Thursday, supported by processor demand due to slow cash sales, dealers said.
Soyameal led the market higher but then soyaoil gained on meal, repeating this week's trend. Talk of recent global demand for oil was supportive along with speculative buying.
March soyaoil settled 0.57 cent higher at 24.37 cents per lb, with May up 0.60 at 24.75.
Little direction was given from US export sales data for soyameal and soyaoil as the numbers were close to expectations.
USDA said US soyameal export sales last week were 92,400 tonnes (old and new crop), within estimates for 50,000 to 125,000 tonnes. US soyaoil sales last week were 400 tonnes (old crop), compared with estimates for zero to 10,000 tonnes.
There were no March soyameal deliveries. CBOT meal registrations were unchanged at 34 contracts.
In soyaoil, there were 764 March deliveries but they were met again by strong commercial stopping - a supportive sign. The Bunge house account took 265 lots and the Term house account stopped 499 lots.
Soyaoil CBOT registrations were steady at 6,233 lots on Wednesday.
Funds bought roughly 4,000 soyabean and soyaoil futures and 2,500 soyameal, traders estimated.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed weak overnight.

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