Oil holds most of big losses on hefty US supplies

22 Mar, 2006

Oil prices held most of the previous day's slump on Tuesday as forecasts for another rise in US crude stocks countered concern that tension over Iran's nuclear work may disrupt supply. US light sweet crude for April delivery traded 33 cents higher at $60.75 a barrel at 1800 GMT, following a drop of nearly 4 percent on Monday.
London Brent crude was up 86 cents at $62.20, after falling almost $2 the previous day. Expectations of a further rise in US crude inventories, already at their highest in about seven years, may cause prices to fall further, dealers said.
"It's going to see some more downside pressure later on this afternoon," said Kevin Blemkin of Man Financial in London. "Crude is looking at another build."
"In the background, you've still got the geopolitical worries with Iran, but there's no news on that one so I suppose the market's going to drift a little bit," he said.
US crude supplies are expected to show another hefty rise of 2.5 million barrels when the US government releases its oil data on Wednesday, analysts polled by Reuters said. That would be the sixth consecutive weekly increase.
Analysts predicted a 2.2 million-barrel drop in distillates stocks, which include heating oil, but said the decline was seasonal. Gasoline inventories are also forecast to drop an average 1.2 million barrels.
US crude inventories have swelled in part because of a tide of imports in recent months that has given the world's top consumer a thick buffer against supply disruptions.
Stockpiles of crude in the US Gulf Coast, the heart of the nation's oil industry, are at their highest level since 1990, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Even at $60, oil prices are about twice where they were two years ago as rising world demand stretches producers and refiners, eroding the world's reserve production capacity to counter an extended supply outage.
Prices will not drop too far, some investors said.
"We're not expecting to see a material fall in the oil price," said Finlay MacDonald, who helps manage over $30 billion at Britannic Asset Management in Glasgow, including shares of BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell. "The conditions we are in at the moment are likely to persist for some time."
Real and threatened supply breaks, including attacks on Nigeria's oil industry and concern the dispute over Iran could affect exports from the world's fourth-largest supplier suggest the move below $60 will not last, some analysts said.
"The market's had a crack at $60 several times recently, but not looked at all convincing below that level," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital. "I just don't think there's the appetite to push it down there."
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday Tehran will stand by its right to obtain nuclear technology and anyone spreading propaganda against its atomic programme will come to regret it.
"No one can take away our nuclear technology. The Iranian nation has obtained it and will preserve it," he said in a televised address to mark the start of the Iranian year.

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