An internal US embassy report on Iraq's provinces and obtained by the New York Times concluded in January that the stability of the strategic Baghdad region is a serious concern.
The 10-page report, dated January 31, three weeks before the insurgent bombing of a Shi'ite shrine pushed Iraq to the brink of civil war, says the governorate is plagued by intimidation and assassinations of public officials, Iraqi security forces and civilians.
The report rates the stability of each of Iraq's 18 provinces according to their governance, security and economy.
It finds six provinces, mainly in Sunni-populated north-western Iraq, have a "serious" security situation, with the rebellious desert province of Anbar suffering from "critical" economic and security problems. Those areas are the heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency gripping central Iraq.
Security in Iraq's nine southern Shi'ite provinces was seen as "stable", or "moderate", with the exception of oil-rich Basra governorate, home to Iraq's second largest city.
"A high level of militia activity including infiltration of local security forces. Smuggling and criminal activity continues unabated," the report said of the predominantly Shi'ite city.
The report finds the relatively calm semi-autonomous Kurdish region in the north as stable in governance, security and economy.
In the holy southern Shi'ite cities of Kerbala and Najaf, the report says the local government is stable but warns of increasing Iranian influence. "Government is functioning and improving. However, there appears to be increasing association with the Iranian government. The local population ... are concerned about their growing influence."
The report also warns of "strong and growing influence of the SCIRI party" on Baghdad's provincial council. SCIRI is one of Iraq's most powerful Shi'ite Islamist parties and is accused of having close links to the anti-US regime in Tehran. Sunni Arabs accuse SCIRI of sanctioning militia death squads, a charge it denies. But despite the high level of violence, Baghdad, whose stability is crucial for the progress of the whole country, has "an economy that is developing slowly" and a "government that functions, but has areas of concerns," according to the report.