Canadian dollar drops on manufacturing

15 Apr, 2006

The Canadian dollar fell broadly on Thursday after an unexpected drop in February manufacturing shipments raised questions about the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for interest rate increases.
Bond prices ended lower, but outperformed US treasuries, as trading finished early ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Markets will be closed on Friday.
The currency finished at C$1.1508 to the US dollar, or 86.90 US cents, down from C$1.1463 to the US dollar, or 87.24 US cents, at Wednesday's close.
Canadian manufacturing shipments fell a disappointing 2.2 percent in February - versus expectations for a 0.5 percent rise - as lower oil and lumber prices added to pressure from a strong currency, which makes exports less competitive.
"The Canada (dollar) gave up some of the gains from earlier in the week on the back of the number," said Jack Spitz, director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada. "It's faltered versus a number of currencies."
The loonie's weakness was exacerbated by strong US retail sales data and thin volumes ahead of the long weekend. This helped push the currency out of the C$1.14-C$1.15 range it has occupied over the last few sessions.
Scotia Capital analyst Andrew Pyle said the manufacturing report suggested Canada's manufacturing sector has not adjusted to the strength of the Canadian dollar as well as official and consensus economic talk has suggested, which could play into future Bank of Canada decisions.
The bank has raised its overnight rate five straight times and forecasters are now debating whether the bank will implement one or two more quarter-percentage-point hikes before pausing.
In a survey released on Thursday, the bank said Canadian companies were twice as likely to see negative effects from the appreciation of Canadian dollar than positive ones.
Analysts also said Canadian dollar sentiment might have been soured somewhat by a research note by Goldman Sachs that said the Canadian dollar might be primed for a fall versus European currencies.

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