Bids for HRW wheat flat, rainfall eyed

09 May, 2006

Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat in the US Plains were unchanged on Monday as country movement remained slow and the market kept an eye on the weather.
Weekend rainfall in the US Plains hard red winter wheat region totalled from 0.30 to 1.00 inch of rain in south-west Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and in Texas, and additional rainfall was expected on Monday and Tuesday, according to Meteorlogix.
The rain was likely too late for many of the most drought-stricken areas, but could still be beneficial for many fields, particularly in Kansas, where the drought damage has not been as severe, wheat experts said.
"It can't be too late, I think it will still help some of the areas," said one Kansas wheat merchant.
Meteorlogix's six-to-10-day forecast for the Plains from Saturday through Wednesday called for normal to above-normal temperatures in the west and normal to below-normal in the east. Rainfall will be normal to below-normal in the west and normal to above-normal in the east.
The futures market rallied on Friday on predictions that the extended winter drought has left the new winter wheat crop in short supply.
Consulting firm Informa Economics on Friday projected the US 2006 hard red winter wheat crop at 690 million bushels, down from 929.8 million in 2005 and the all-winter wheat crop at 1.298 billion bushels, down from actual 2005 production of 1.499 billion, trade sources said.
The Kansas City Board of Trade July contract soared more than 20 cents a bushel Friday before settling 17-1/2 higher at $4.56 while deferred months closed 7-1/2 to 16-3/4 cents higher.
The market was expected to open 1-3 cents lower on Monday because of the potentially beneficial rainfall, traders said.
On the export front, Jordan tendered for 120,000 tonnes of US wheat and India was mulling a cut in import duties on wheat.

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