Asian currencies weaker as banks positions

20 May, 2006

Asian currencies were steady to weaker on Friday, hovering close to multi-month lows hit earlier this week as some banks covered short positions on the dollar after seeing the US currency rebound.
The Thai baht was an exception initially, rising as much as half a percent to about 38 per dollar as an outflow of funds chasing a share sale by a Thai company in Singapore subsided ahead of the launch on Friday, but it later gave up most of those gains.
The Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah all weakened from late Asian trading on Thursday, moving close to lows hit on Tuesday when talk of higher US rates spooked emerging market investors.
Traders said the sudden, sharp rise in the dollar caught several banks on the wrong foot since most had sold dollars against Asian currencies in April on signs that US rates were close to peaking.
"A lot of banks got hurt shorting the dollar," said a Kuala Lumpur-based currency trader. "They're short-covering ahead of the weekend. People want to hit and run. There's also some commercial demand for dollars at these levels."
The dollar went as high as 111.84 yen, rising from an eight-month low of 108.96 per dollar on Wednesday. It has climbed between 1.5 and 2.0 percent against several other Asian currencies in the past week.
US inflation fears were fuelled further on Thursday when several Fed officials said that the risks of rising prices were increasing and that this factor remained the Fed's main focus.
Higher US rates make emerging market assets less attractive to risk-averse investors. They also dampen growth prospects - a worry that hit most Asian stock markets this week.
Foreigners were net sellers of Korean stocks for the eighth straight day and Taiwan stocks for the sixth day on Friday.
Meanwhile, New York oil futures moved back towards $70 a barrel after declining this month.
"The oil price is the main risk," said Chatchawan Jumruswittayawong, head of trading at Bank of Ayudhya in Bangkok.
But for now, Chatchawan said, the Thai baht was getting some relief from the end of outflows of funds from Thailand to Singapore.
Thai investors took money out of the country to buy shares in beer and whisky maker Thai Beverage PCL. The S$1.76 billion ($1.12 billion) share sale in Singapore will be the island's biggest initial public offering in more than 10 years.
"Most of the outflows because of the IPO are over," said Chatchawan. He said the outflows turned out to be a double whammy for the baht amid this week's general fund outflows from emerging markets. The baht hit a 1-1/2-month low of 38.37 on Tuesday.
The Indonesian rupiah, which bore the brunt of this week's sell-off, was relatively stable, trading within a range of 9,105-9,225 per dollar.
An upgrade of Indonesia's debt rating by Moody's Investors Service to B1 failed to lift the currency.
It plunged to a 3-1/2-month low of 9,420 on Tuesday from a two-year high of 8,685 last week.
The Philippine peso, the other big loser in this week's sell-off, traded in a range of 52.56-52.68 per dollar, revisiting a 3-1/2-month low of 52.68 hit on Thursday.
The Philippine central bank governor said on Friday the peso's recent drop was mirroring region-wide currency falls on expectations of rising US interest rates.
"We are moving along with the region. We'll have to study inflation data in the US because that's new information," Amando Tetangco told reporters.

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