The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active, with up to 10 hurricanes, although not as busy as record-breaking 2005, when Hurricane Katrina and several monster storms slammed into the United States, the US government's top climate agency said on Monday.
"For the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The most damage is caused by storms that reach Category 3, with winds of 111-130 mph (178-209 kph), or higher on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane activity.
Scientists were way off the mark in their forecasts of last year's hurricane season. The season starts June 1 each year.
The 2005 hurricane season spawned an unprecedented 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes. NOAA had predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, of which it said seven to nine would be hurricanes. Seven of last year's hurricanes were considered "major," while NOAA had predicted only three to five would reach that level.
A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage. Rita slammed into Louisiana and Texas, and Wilma briefly became the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.
"Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the US is high," Lautenbacher said in prepared remarks in Miami.
The average six-month hurricane season has 10 tropical storms, of which six strengthen into hurricanes when their maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph (119 kph).
US hurricane experts say a sharp rise in Atlantic storm activity since about 1995 is related to a natural shift in climatic conditions and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that is expected to last from 15 to 40 years.
Some climatologists however say there are indications that human-induced global warming could be increasing the average intensity of tropical cyclones, although there is no evidence to date that it is affecting the number of hurricanes.