Oil surges over 2.5 percent on commodity rebound

24 May, 2006

Oil prices surged more than 2.5 percent on Tuesday as commodities rebounded from last week's selloff and the US government predicted another rough Atlantic hurricane season.
US crude for July delivery settled up $1.80, or 2.57 percent, at $71.76 a barrel, while London July Brent crude climbed $1.65 to $71 a barrel.
Precious and industrial metals surged higher, after a sharp fall last week that wiped nearly 5 percent off oil, as investors worried record raw material prices would mean stronger inflation, higher interest rates and reduced demand.
But analysts predicted inflationary concerns would not significantly affect economic growth.
"The view remains that the basic economic trends supporting the global growth outlook remain intact and the recent downturn in the asset markets will likely be reversed," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
Predictions for another active hurricane season also helped support crude prices.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there could be up to 10 hurricanes this year. Last year's weather onslaught on the oil and gas production hub of the Gulf of Mexico toppled offshore platforms, ruptured undersea pipelines and flooded several coastal refineries.
"Predictions for a strong hurricane season have been around for a while, but there are some firm numbers and probabilities attached now," said Andrew Harrington, resources analyst at Australia and New Zealand Bank in Sydney.
"If they come to pass, it looks like a rough season, which could impact output still recovering from last year."
About 20 percent of the Gulf's normal output of 1.5 million barrels per day of crude, along with 13 percent of the region's 10 bcfd of natural gas production, has been shut since the record 2005 storm season, which pushed US crude above $70 for the first time.
US Energy Secretary Sam Bodman told Reuters on Tuesday that as much as 10 percent of the Gulf's production may never return due to last year's storms.
He added that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which meets next week in Venezuela to discuss output policy, was powerless to bring prices down as the cartel is already producing near full throttle.
Rising US gasoline inventories could provide some relief from high prices, with a Reuters poll of analysts predicting a fourth consecutive weekly jump when government data is released on Wednesday.
Refineries were looking to Memorial Day holiday on May 29, the traditional launch of the US summer, when drivers take to the roads for holidays.
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, will raise state-capped retail gasoline and diesel prices Wednesday to take them 15 percent higher so far this year.
Analysts said this was not enough to stop refiners from losing money, but was likely to slightly hit demand growth.

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