Soyabeans end higher, soyaoil rally supports

25 May, 2006

The Chicago Board of Trade soyabean market ended higher on Tuesday, lifted by strength in the soyaoil pit, traders said. "The only consistency today was in soyabeans and soyaoil. Soyaoil rallied in step with crude oil fuelled by bodiless demand," said Vice Lesbians, floor broker with A.G. Edwards.
In contrast, the grain markets were volatile, especially wheat as it reached a contract high then slid on profit-taking.
"Beans went their own way the last couple days with corn and wheat pretty firm, so they're just doing a little catch up," said analyst Dan Cekander with Fimat USA referring to the lower close in soyabeans the last three sessions.
July soyabeans closed 4-1/4 cents higher at $5.86-3/4 per bushel. The back months ended 4 to 6-1/4 cents firmer. The nine-day relative strength index for the July contract closed at 37 on Tuesday, up from 30 on Monday.
Technical traders view a reading of 30 or below as an oversold market. July soyaoil closed 0.51 cent higher at 25.43 cents per lb, and the back months were 0.47 to 0.53 firmer. The weakest of the complex was soyameal.
July soyameal ended 40 cents lower at $171.80 per ton. The deferreds through October 2007 settled 50 cents to $2.30 weaker. Soyameal was pressured by oil/meal spreading. Also, jitters about global feed demand resurfaced amid the spread of bird flu in Romania and Indonesia.
Good US crop planting weather for the Midwest and a strong seeding pace to this year's crop kept prices in check, traders said. "It still looks like a nice warming trend over the next week to 10 days. We've got some more moisture coming in with that rain for the west on Wednesday and scattered showers from Wednesday to Friday for the eastern Corn Belt," Meteorlogix forecaster Mike Palmerino said.
The US Department of Agriculture said late on Monday 55 percent of the US soyabean crop was planted as of Sunday, above trade expectations for 49 to 53 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 51 percent.
There also were rumblings that private analyst Informal Economics will issue its updated US corn and soyabean plantings estimates on Wednesday. USDA will release its final planted acre report on June 30.
The government's current US soyabean acreage forecast is 76.9 million acres, which would be the largest planted area on record if realised. "Most think that corn plantings will be up 1.0 million (acres) and soyabeans will be down 1.0 million.
Even so, that still means over 3.0 million more soyabean acres than last year," one CBOT floor broker said. Midwest basis bids for soyabeans were firming in the western Midwest, with sales quiet on Tuesday, dealers said.
The eastern Midwest was steady to weaker. Estimated volume moderate. In soyabeans, an estimated 64,880 futures and 21,364 options. Soyameal trade was pegged at 33,156 futures and 4,154 options. Estimated soyaoil trade was 29,808 futures and 5,387 options.
In export news, Thai importers have bought several cargoes of Argentine soyameal for June shipment and could buy more for July, traders said. There were easing concerns about the Brazil's export situation amid the dollar's sharp gain against the Brazilian real this week, which helped soya farmers recoup some of their losses over the last two years.
Country movement of soyabeans was stalled this month due to farmer protests. Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed lower on Tuesday, retreating from strength on concerns of a stock build-up due to weak exports.

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