Long-standing proposals on farm tariff cuts by the G20 group of developing countries probably offer the best chances for a World Trade Organisation (WTO) deal, according to the chairman of the farm negotiations.
"I cannot see how any objective observer could avoid the conclusion that the real zone of engagement has to be 'around' the G20," New Zealand ambassador Crawford Falconer said.
Those pushing for the deepest tariff cuts, such as the United States and Australia, reject the G20 plan as not enough, while the more defensive agricultural powers like the European Union and Japan say it goes too far.
WTO member states face an end-June deadline for a draft agreement in agriculture and industrial goods, including cuts to subsidies and tariffs.
The draft deals, which the WTO hopes will be hammered out at a meeting of trade ministers from June 29-July 2, aim to set the stage for a blueprint for a complete free trade pact to be agreed at the end of July.
Failure to meet the deadlines could condemn to failure the WTO's Doha round, with its promise to boost economic growth and help lift millions out of poverty.
The Brazil- and India-led alliance has called for developed states to agree to cut their farm import tariffs by an average 54 percent, while developing countries would accept an average maximum cut of some 36 percent.
But the United States wants 66 percent for the richer nations, the European Union is offering 39 percent and other big farm goods importers such as Switzerland and Norway even less.
"But if we are going to have an agreement, I have a sense that that is where the real negotiation will have to take place," Falconer said in a summary of the state of play in negotiations on tariffs, or market access in WTO parlance. But deep differences between states over agricultural trade would be difficult to bridge, Falconer said.
"It is not at all easy for me to see how those divergences will be bridgeable in the time available," he wrote to member states late on Friday. The 37-page text on market access mainly spelt out existing positions. But Falconer included comments at some points where he thought convergence could be achieved.
The notion that developing countries did "two-thirds" of whatever rich nations accepted in farm reform might be accepted. "I find it hard to get away from the sense that the basic concept of 2/3 has a certain resonance," he wrote.
The first public reaction to his views will come on Monday, when the WTO's 149 members hold a further round of farm talks.
The chairmen of both the farm and industrial goods' negotiating committees are due to present their proposals for 'modalities' - the WTO term for a draft pact - by June 19.
For agriculture, these will include subsidies in the form of 'domestic support' as well as export assistance. The task is no easier in industrial goods where diplomats said the gap between rich and poor states appeared to be widening.