Russian President Vladimir Putin tried on Friday to calm speculation about who will succeed him in 2008, suggesting the top Kremlin job might go to an outsider rather than one of the two fancied contenders.
Analysts said Putin's comments reflected Kremlin concerns his authority could be undermined if his succession was perceived as a two-horse race between Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov and First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
Speaking in Shanghai, Putin, 53, repeated he would not run for a third term despite evidence of popular support for such a move, as it would require constitutional changes.
Asked by journalists if the next president might be someone other than Ivanov and Medvedev, he said: "Yes, that's possible, especially since the list (of present contenders) is not very long." Pressed on whether there could be an unknown outsider, he said: "Completely unknown? Not really. Such people are known to everyone but their names are simply not mentioned."
However he was careful in his remarks, reported by Russian news agencies, not to rule out either Medvedev or Ivanov. The question of who will lead Russia, an energy superpower seeking to reassert itself as a global player, is the country's hottest political topic.
Putin has made it clear he will name an heir-apparent, as he himself was anointed by former president Boris Yeltsin in 1999. Though an heir would have to be elected, endorsement by the highly-popular Putin would make their election likely.
Ivanov, a friend from Putin's days as a KGB spy, and Medvedev, a lawyer from his home town of St Petersburg, were given top government jobs in November and the Kremlin seemed to be pointing to one of them as the next president. Both are seen likely to maintain Putin's system of managed democracy with a strong Kremlin and assertiveness abroad.
Each has been given prime time exposure on state-controlled television for appearances at set-piece events, suggesting the Kremlin is sponsoring open competition between them. Analysts said on Friday Putin may have decided speculation about the post-Putin period could weaken his authority.
"If there is one clear successor and everybody is taking it for granted, then the existing president becomes a lame duck and the whole political class focuses on the new man. If there is a two-horse race it still applies to a certain extent," said Christopher Granville, a consultant for Deutsche UFG.
"So Putin will keep everybody guessing, keeping key cards to his chest, ensuring that he remains the pivot of everything and that his own authority is as fresh as it can be until a much later stage," said Granville. Other names mooted by commentators include Putin's new chief of staff, Sergei Sobyanin, and railways chief Vladimir Yakunin.
Many commentators took Putin's words to mean that his heir-apparent would not be known until late 2007, ahead of parliamentary elections in December and some months before presidential elections in March 2008.
Analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov, of the "Politika" foundation, said he believed the successor would become prime minister and then eventually be tapped by Putin - the route Putin took. Putin, expected to stay on after 2008 in some influential political role, may also be wary of naming an heir too soon since it would risk exposing his man to political attack.
Putin was an obscure figure when he became head of the FSB state security service in 1998 and a year later prime minister. After being anointed by Yeltsin as his successor, a huge PR campaign ensured Putin's election in 2000 as president.