Rice exporters fear a shortage of water will reduce rice production and cut exports by about 15 percent during the fiscal year beginning on July 1, a top trade official said on Monday.
Abdul Majid, chairman of Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan, said water shortages of more than 45 percent in southern Sindh province, which produces the bulk of IRRI varieties, had hurt hopes for a good harvest this season.
"The rice crop in Sindh suffers the most from the ongoing water crisis," said Majid, who's association handles 98 percent of Pakistan's rice exports.
He said he expected Sindh to produce 800,000 to 900,000 tonnes less IRRI-variety rice this season. Last year, Pakistan produced 2.3 million tonnes of IRRI varieties, most in Sindh.
Rice crops in Sindh province are largely dependent on the availability of water in irrigation canals during sowing period and later, on the rain.
But weather officials said no rain was expected in Sindh over the next two months, a crucial period for sowing. Pakistan's rice crop year runs from April to November.
Weather officials say water levels in major reservoirs are critically low as the country got 40 percent less winter rain than normal and up to 25 percent less snow.
No significant rain is expected before the end of July and the meteorological department is warning of "severe water stress".
Pakistan, which depends heavily on agriculture, saw the sector shrink by 2.5 percent in fiscal 2005/06 (July/June) compared with growth of 6.7 percent the previous year.
A senior official at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture said the government had initially estimated a 30 percent shortage of irrigation water during the sowing season in Sindh, but shortages turned out to be more.
"The area under rice cultivation has dropped in Sindh," said the official, who declined to be identified. "I can't say how much water shortages have affected sowing, but we have reports that the crisis is pushing growers to switch to less water-intensive cotton."
"We can only give a figure on the area lost in the first week of July, when sowing has ended," the official said.
The official said the Irri varieties of rice will be most affected but production of aromatic Basmati rice would not be hit.
Majid said the total 2006/07 rice harvest is expected to be about 4.8 to 4.9 million tonnes compared with a record of 5.8 million tonnes in 2005/06.
In May, agriculture officials said they expected the 2006/07 rice crop to exceed 5.7 million tonnes. Annual domestic consumption is about 2.3 million tonnes. Rice accounts for about 8 percent of Pakistani exports.