Iran could be able to build an atom bomb by 2009 if it laid groundwork this year for producing highly enriched uranium, a former UN arms inspector said in a report.
Writing in the July-August edition of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, American physicist David Albright based his "worst case scenario" on scientific and diplomatic assessments of Iran's recent progress with centrifuge enrichment machines.
"Looking at a timeline of at least three years..., there is still time to pursue aggressive diplomatic options (against an Iranian enrichment drive) and for measures such as sanctions to have an effect, if they become necessary," Albright wrote. "Otherwise, we risk a seismic shift in the balance of power in the region," he said of Iran, which has been an arch-foe of the United States since 1979.
US intelligence chief John Negroponte said on June 2 that Iran could have an atomic bomb by 2010 and seemed determined to get one, "although we don't have clear-cut knowledge". Other estimates have ranged as long as a decade.
To produce enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for one atom bomb by 2009, Iran would have needed to start building this year a clandestine plant with 1,500-1,800 centrifuges, Albright said.
Albright said Iran was thought to have enough good-quality components for 1,500-2,000 centrifuges, on top of the roughly 800 earmarked for its Natanz pilot plant monitored by the IAEA.
Iran could probably commission a secret plant by end 2007. It would take another year to make enough HEU for a bomb, and several months to mould the HEU for use in a weapon, he said. Albright said Iran has yet to prove it can keep large numbers of centrifuges spinning non-stop for long periods, the key to yielding usable volumes of low- or high-enriched uranium.