Asian currencies up amid signs of Fed rate relief

03 Jul, 2006

Asian currencies gained ground against the dollar last week after the US Federal Reserve hinted it may soon put an end to two years of interest rate hikes.
JAPANESE YEN: The yen rose against the dollar after the US Federal Reserve signalled it may soon halt its rate-rising cycle, dealers said.
The Japanese currency stood at 114.90 to the dollar late Friday, compared with 116.04 to the dollar a week earlier.
On Thursday, the Fed hiked its federal funds rate by a quarter point, as expected, to 5.25 percent, and issued a policy statement that seemed to indicate its two-year rate-hiking cycle was nearly over.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toned down the risks of inflation, even while the economy appears to be cooling down.
"The Fed statement turned out to be less hawkish than the market had expected," said Kikuko Takeda, currency research manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
"The market reacted by selling the dollar as it had previously priced in the risk of sharper interest rate hikes because of inflation worries," Takeda said. "The market view is that there may be one more rate rise, either in August or September to 5.5 percent, so the dollar's fall has been limited to around the 115-yen level," she said.
The yen's gain, however, was limited amid growing calls for the resignation of Bank of Japan governor Toshihiko Fukui over his investment in the fund of Yoshiaki Murakami, who has been indicted for alleged insider trading.
"Overseas markets reacted to the news reports on Fukui but I don't think he would resign his post," said Yoshihiro Nomura, forex team manager at Trust and Custody Services Bank. "If he steps down over such issues, it would affect the BoJ's credibility," Nomura said.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: The Australian dollar will likely continue to gain strength in the coming week following the US Federal Reserve's indications that it has paused its rate-hiking cycle, dealers said.
At 5:00 pm Friday (0700 GMT), the dollar was trading at 74.28/30 US cents, well up on the previous week's 73.42/47 US cents.
CommSec chief equities economist Craig James said the prospect of a pause in US interest rate hikes had weakened the greenback and pushed up the Australian dollar.
"The Australian dollar is likely to hug levels near 0.75 US dollars in coming weeks, representing good news for retailers and importers but more challenging conditions for manufacturers," he said.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR: The New Zealand dollar ended the week at 60.88 US cents, down from 61.10 the previous Friday.
The kiwi dollar had hovered around 59.50 US cents during the week before soaring one cent on Friday following news the US might pause its tightening cycle of interest rates following the latest increase of 25 basis points.
Normally that would have had investors swinging in towards the greenback but some investors who were hoping for a larger increase pared back their long positions.
"People were really looking for a statement that was a little more hawkish than what they delivered," said Danica Hampton, a BNZ currency strategist. "But NZ dollar sentiment is still negative."
CHINESE YUAN: The Chinese yuan finished the week at 7.9943 to the dollar, compared with 8.0002 the week before.
Friday's central parity rate for the yuan was set at 7.9956 to the dollar.
The central bank has a daily yuan-dollar trading band of 0.3 percent on either side of the midpoint.
HONG KONG DOLLAR: The US-dollar pegged Hong Kong dollar closed the week at 7.7673 from the previous week's close of 7.7678.
INDONESIAN RUPIAH: The rupiah ended the week stronger at 9,260-9,270 to the dollar, compared to the previous week's close of 9,400-9,410 to the dollar.
PHILIPPINE PESO: The Philippine peso rose to 53.110 to the dollar, from 53.260 the week before.
SINGAPORE DOLLAR: The dollar was at 1.5890 Singapore dollars on Friday from 1.5978 the previous week.
SOUTH KOREAN WON: The won strengthened sharply to 948.90 won to the dollar, compared with 956 won a week earlier, as the dollar tumbled globally after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a pause in its series of rate hikes.
The dollar fell 11.70 won on Friday alone as business firms and overseas dealers dumped the greenback in favour of the South Korean currency.
Dealers said the dollar-won exchange rate is expected to move in a new range of 944-953 won when the market reopens on Monday.
TAIWAN DOLLAR: The Taiwan dollar rose 0.97 percent during the week to close at 32.399 against the US dollar, from 32.716 a week earlier.
THAI BAHT: The Thai baht gained against the dollar over the past week, as worries eased over future interest rate hikes in the United States, dealers said.
The Thai currency closed Friday at 38.16-19 to the dollar, compared to 38.42-47 a week earlier.

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