Global reaction to BoJ hike likely to be long term

09 Jul, 2006

Financial markets wilted when the Bank of Japan ended its super-loose monetary policy in March, but rising risk aversion since then means global investors are well positioned to absorb any BoJ rate hike next week.
Asset prices have had a full quarter to adjust to the reality that the world's big three central banks - the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the BoJ - are tightening policy in unison for the first time in more than 20 years and that the era of cheap money is ending.
Global stock markets which lost 12.8 percent as investors took billions in profits after an almost uninterrupted three-year rally have stabilised, government bond yields have risen largely in line with the scale of hikes anticipated, and currencies are once again tracking familiar ranges.
So even if Japan does formally end its zero interest rate policy next week, as expected, it is unlikely to spark a sell-off on fears that liquidity is suddenly evaporating.
"It is widely priced in," said Robert Parkes, UK equity strategist at HSBC. "I wouldn't have thought there would be a major reaction because it's been expected." That does not mean, however, that there will be no reaction in specific areas.
Lawrence Dryden, acting head of currency at State Street Global Advisors, for example, reckons confirmation of a hike could knock a couple of yen off the dollar on the day.
"Initially there might be a rally in the yen and a sell-off in the dollar but the market has already got a very positive (sloping) yield built in," he said, meaning a hike is expected.
In a similar vein, Marc Ostwald, a bond strategist at Insinger de Beaufort, reckons there is still enough money in Japan from what he called the "speculative fraternity" for a hike to trigger some additional liquidity withdrawal.
He noted a popular carry trade in which investors borrow yen at a sub-0.10 percent overnight rate and invest it in three-month bills which give around 0.38 percent.

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