China may need to ramp up aluminium exports by as much as 34 percent this year to clear a growing backlog, which could place a further chill on world prices. China is likely to pump out 18 to 23 percent more primary aluminium, or some 9.2- to 9.6 million tonnes, this year, which would be higher than the 9 million tonnes predicted by analysts.
Ample electricity and lower prices for the raw material, alumina, are prompting smelters to ramp up operations. With the country expected to consume up to 8.1 million tonnes of primary aluminium, net exports could rise over 1 million tonnes this year against 745,543 tonnes in 2005, according to Heng Kun, Shanghai-based analyst for Everbright Securities.
Macquarie Bank, meanwhile, predicts China's net exports of primary aluminium and alloys alone will top 600,000 tonnes this year, while the balance of the export total would be made up from fast rising semi-finished aluminium products.