Yields are likely to rise by 1.9 percent in 2006 for the EU's main cereals crops from last year although drought conditions could still worsen and affect the final harvest, the European Commission said on Friday.
Total cereals yields were projected at 5.1 tonnes per hectare for 2006, up by 1.9 percent from 2005 and 1.6 percent from the 2001-05 average, the EU executive said in a report.
Soft wheat yields would rise by 2.5 percent from 2005 to 6.1 tonnes/hectare and barley by 3.8 percent to 4.2 tonnes/hectare.
Without offering figures for likely production, the Commission said overall wheat output could rise by around 2 million tonnes in 2006, although some regions would still have below average production due to this year's late spring drought.
For barley, production could fall by around 1.5 percent.
Grain maize was the only crop that was expected to see a decrease in average yields, which were forecast to fall by 2.1 percent to 8.2 tonnes/hectare for 2006. Production would fall by at least three million tonnes from last year, it said.
"...the impact of low water reserves in some of the main productive basins of the EU ... could cause drastic reductions if there is not enough rainfall in the next weeks," it said, citing south-western France and northern Italy as examples.
"In these areas the situation appears in some cases worse than in 2005," the report said.
"EU crop yield levels are suffering this year from similar conditions to 2005, though to a lesser extent. Dry conditions and hot temperatures have again had an impact on water resources in the affected areas," the Commission said in a report.
"If the drought continues, the affected area could get bigger and crop yield impact worsen. Any resulting impact on irrigation would affect grain maize in addition to sugar beet and potatoes," it said. While drought was keeping yields at low levels in southern Europe, especially in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the geographic area affected by the hot weather was smaller compared with that of the extreme droughts in 2005 and 2003.
Also, the rain deficit in the most affected areas in 2006 started mostly in the spring, whereas in 2005 it started way before this, as far back as autumn 2004, the report said.
"In the northernmost regions of the concerned areas, the hot temperatures arrived later, making the impact on soil moisture less dramatic than in 2005," it said.