Our History is that, Pakistan unfortunately gets hit by political tsunami all too often. The kind of tsunami that hits Pakistan is probably more severe than the one that hit Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka. As is clear, tsunamis cannot be predicted and you only know about it after it has hit you; therefore we cannot predict when the next tsunami will hit Pakistan.
Tsunami hits were actually many, but just to name a few, it was in 1952, 1958, 1968, 1971, 1979, 1988 and 1999 etc. According to "geologists", particularly in advanced Western laboratories, the next one is expected to hit anytime between 2007-2008. We pray that no lives or property is lost this time round, as did in the major December 1971 tsunami.
In the next elections, it is not important (for the masses at least) which party wins and which party loses, What will be important is if the following can be achieved and voted upon?
1. Good Governance. 2. Provincial Autonomy. 3. Better distribution of wealth. 4. Police Reforms. 5. Reduction of Governmental Corruption. 6. Modernisation of the judiciary/courts. 7. A rational Foreign Policy.
The mainstream political party, the Muslim League has been in the field since 1906, and was entirely responsible, under the leadership of Jinnah and his colleagues, for the creation of Pakistan on August 14, 1947.
Earlier, we had lost an Empire - India, to the new powers from Europe. Portuguese first, then French and finally the English who, still today, as the Commonwealth, a big-brother to its former colonies.
Peoples loyalty should be to a political party based upon its ideology alone and not as is happening for about 50 years, to specific personalities. The Muslim League should also have a different role, compared to other parties, because it was seen also as a custodian of the ideology and the Two Nation theory, which was initially the bed rock of our separation from the Indian-Union.
'Popular' politics has now become extremely rightist as it has deviated from the principles laid down by our founding fathers. Again if the main ideologically motivated party loses its way Pakistan may lose its way. Also the awam must be reminded that all political parties have patriots too and can be (sometimes) subject to the laws of the land. At present, its is not pure politics at all. It is a mixture of various aspects, some of which are not so palatable. So most ideological "Nazariati" Pakistanis choose to sit on the sidelines, while many have charmed their way up to power, time and again.
We do wish to see political parties united at some point or issues and to look at the higher values of politics for the betterment of the national interest and the ignored masses.
No political party today is really an independent one, it is sometimes a shortcut to pseudo-democracy as it is largely run by the civilian-military bureaucracy and rarely are elections held in any party in the true spirit of the word. The top leadership comes by selection by the bureaucrats in Islamabad and elsewhere. Some political-parties may be more favoured than another.
The political game plan, is normally not clear to party members/workers-cadres nor is the Manifesto taken seriously enough, by the high command, eg 'Roti, Kapra aur Makaan, of the PPP.'
The writer thinks that in 2007 elections most of the landed class, strongmen and the rightists groups with street power, and religious groups or pirs will form the winning coalition. This group's victory could become, say, "critical" to the national one-track mindset.
The most strange perhaps alarming issues for our thinkers (?) are: Starting to believe in Indian friendship (where does the Two-Nation theory fit here?)
Opening up of roads between Pakistan and India, firstly in the Punjab, Lahore-Amritsar sector (Why did we punish the Bengal Awami League for suggesting friendship with India and Dacca-Calcutta road etc by later on slapping the Agartala-Conspiracy case leading finally to separation?)
This misleading body-language has led to receiving a suggestion from the President of India, to re-join the Indian Union!!! (earlier this year - 2006.)
The Congress-Party of India has been waging an intellectual warfare with the All India Muslim League since 1920 and now they have thrown the challenge to PML/Pakistan state by suggesting we join the Indian Union. (Did we respond.?)
If we divorced the Congress-led India in 1947 why try to go to bed together. (Its self-defeating too, to say the least.)
A political party should remain a democratic Political force and not the "Establishment". Let us play our political role and let the people win.
About the foreign policy of Pakistan, we are again driven by a single mindset. No regular debates are held on it, even as we are pretty much isolated in the West and also the South Asian region. On the one side we have the Arabian Sea and on the other side we are surrounded by not-so-friendly countries, like India, Afghanistan and Iran. We are seen as unstable in many other places, including most of the west.
In the short term, there is perhaps no big change for Pakistan, except if the Democrats win elections in 2008 in the USA then things might be cooler in the region (read 'the world'!) and perhaps we can be more flexible with our neighbours. Our utility will be reduced and perhaps at best the status-quo will continue, until we can come up with good-governance to strengthen the fabric of our society and claim to nationhood.
There is no major Social unrest in sight. Indeed people are better off today than they were, say, 4 years ago. The purchasing power has gone up but unfortunately so have the prices and since we no longer live in isolation and all the economies of the world are getting integrated and a price increase anywhere affects each other (and vice-versa.) under the WTO regime.
On the other hand, what really now hurts the people is that the news of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer and the level of corruption has not been declining. Such things as accountability or police-reforms are being read as hollow promises, once again. This hurts and the anger is being vented.
We need to pray. We need to behave better, think better, plan better and learn to share and respect other people ...not loot and plunder by whoever manages to get in power. The tsunami is around the corner!!