The outlook for Britain's wheat crop should become clearer over the next few days as harvesting gathers pace with a heatwave earlier this month expected to have cut yields, analysts said on Thursday. "Overall I would expect them (wheat yields) to be down and they could be down quite a bit," said John Garstang of crop consultants ADAS.
Analysts estimated that Britain's wheat crop was between two and five percent harvested, while 40 to 60 percent of winter rapeseed has been cut and 75 percent or more of winter barley. The spring barley harvest is just getting underway.
"It (the wheat harvest) will certainly start moving in the next week or so. We could see rapid progress if the weather remains dry," Garstang said, adding that until more wheat was cut it was impossible to assess how much damage the heat had done to yields.
Michael Archer, economist with the home-grown Cereals Authority, said there were reports of low yields on lighter soils and healthy yields on heavier lands, adding it was hard "to say anything because not much of it has been harvested."
Archer said the wheat crop was currently around seven to 10 days ahead of normal.
An HGCA survey released earlier this month estimated that the total area sown to wheat in Britain this year was 1.87 million hectares, up 1 percent from the previous season.
Last year's UK crop was 14.88 million tonnes. Britain's rapeseed harvest is gathering pace with a greater variation in yields than normal, analysts said. "A lot has been cut in the last few days. Yields do seem to be very variable but it (yields) may come out around average," Garstang of ADAS said. Archer noted some rapeseed had low moisture content.
The National Farmers' Union, in a report earlier this week, told producers to check the moisture content of their rapeseed, noting "growers will be very familiar with maximum moisture content for oilseed rape but occasionally very dry rapeseed can fall out of specification and lead to unexpected cost."
The HGCA survey put Britain's rapeseed area at 517,000 hectares this season, down less than 1 percent from last year. Last year's UK crop was 1.90 million tonnes. Analysts said harvesting of winter barley was winding down in many areas while the cutting of spring barley was beginning.
"Some analysts have winter barley yields to be just better than average although it is very difficult to tell at this early stage," Archer said. Garstang said winter barley yields had been "about average or maybe slightly above average." The HGCA survey had Britain's winter barley area at 378,000 hectares, down 1 percent from last season, while spring barley was 4 percent lower at 508,000 hectares. Last year's UK barley crop was 5.53 million tonnes.