The International Grains Council said on Thursday it had cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2006/07 (July-June) to 596 million tonnes, down nine million from a previous projection of 605 million. The wheat crop would be below the 617 million tonnes estimated for 2005/06.
The IGC reduced its estimate for the 2006/07 world maize crop by one million tonnes to 692 million. The crop figure is unchanged from the previous season. Hot, dry weather in several major producing countries resulted in the lower wheat forecast, the IGC said.
France saw its wheat crop estimate cut to 38.0 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 40.1 million, Australia to 20.0 million from 22.0 million, Turkey to 17.0 million from 18.0 million and the United States to 49.0 million from 50.0 million.
The IGC's world wheat consumption estimate was cut to 611 million from a previous estimate of 613 million and the previous season's 622 million. "Barley and maize are likely to replace some wheat in feed rations, especially in Europe, because of their better availability and lower prices," the IGC said.
The slight reduction in the IGC's world maize crop estimate for 2006/07 reflected small downward revisions to output in the European Union and the US. The IGC said the deteriorating condition of the US crop more than offset an increase in the estimate for planted area.
"EU crops have also been affected by heat and in France, by irrigation water restrictions, but conditions are more favourable in south-east Europe and Ukraine," the IGC added.