The Muttahida Qaumi Movement is in the habit of springing surprises. Here is another one. It has decided to quit the government, only a few days before the opposition's no-trust motion against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.
The party has charge-sheeted the bureaucracy and Sindh Chief Minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim. The timing of the decision has triggered panic in the power corridors. It has, in fact, worked as a double-edged sword.
Needless to say, President General Musharraf will be the last man to lose MQM, a linchpin among the ruling allies. Not to be forgotten is the no-trust move. So, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, too, would not like to see the ally going the other way at this critical juncture.
In 1989, the Pakistan People's Party government faced a similar situation. Then, MQM at the last moment had decided to join the Nawaz Sharif-led opposition, leaving the PPP in a precarious position. Though even then Benazir Bhutto had managed to survive a no-trust motion.
It is quite a mystery. Why the MQM did not share its concerns with President Musharraf during his stay in Karachi? It chose to rattle the government, shortly after his return to Islamabad. However, the party clarified that its decision had nothing do with the opposition's proposed move in the National Assembly against the Prime Minister.
On their part, the opposition leaders have dubbed MQM's decision as a ploy to 'gain more' in the government. As President's 'special emissary', Shaukat Aziz has air-dashed to Karachi to 'fix' the problem. He is expected to allay concerns of MQM and also listen to the beleaguered Chief Minister, Dr Arbab Rahim.
It is to be seen whether or not the Prime Minister succeeds in chalking out a workable formula between the two sides. The President could not resolve the stand-off, though he called for resolution of any misunderstanding, through dialogue. Has the time to settle the problem through talks gone? The answer lies in the outcome of prime minister's visit.
MQM has three full Federal and one state ministers in the Centre: Babar Khan Ghauri, Safwanullah and Shamim Siddiqui, and Amir Liaquat. It has six ministers, four advisors and six special assistants in Sindh government. Some analysts here believe that the party was unhappy over the President's categorical assertion that neither the Prime Minister nor Sindh Chief Minister would be replaced till elections. Reacting to it, MQM made the (unexpected!) move.
There is also a perception that the creation of the crisis is a deliberate move to neutralise opposition parties' anti-government moves, more importantly the impending motion against the prime minister.
Needless to say, the faster the measures are taken for damage control the better it politically would be both for the president and his government, analysts believe.