US Treasury debt prices surged on Friday, sending yields to four-month lows, after a weaker-than-expected July jobs report bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next week. "No question of a pause now," said Andy Brenner, head of global fixed income at Hapoalim Securities.
It was the fifth month in a row the jobs report came in below expectations, cementing the idea that the US economy is slowing and the Fed does not have to raise interest rates any further to quell the pace of economic growth. US short-term interest-rate futures rose, with the perceived chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting on Tuesday falling to 16 percent from about 43 percent before the payrolls report.
Bond prices immediately jumped and yields fell, with the price of the benchmark 10-year note climbing 15/32 while its yield fell to 4.90 percent, its lowest since early April, from 4.96 percent just before the jobs report, and 4.96 percent late on Thursday.
Benchmark yields have now fallen for five weeks in a row.
"If there was going to be any piece of data that was going to settle the debate between what the Fed ought to do next week, it was today's payroll number for July," said David Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, adding that "the verdict is pretty obvious."
The two-year note, which is more sensitive to expectations for the federal funds rate target, rose 4/32 in price to yield 4.92 percent, down from 4.99 percent late on Thursday.
The 30-year bond's yield fell below 5 percent for the first time in four months. The long bond's price climbed 25/32 higher on Friday afternoon, while its yield fell to 4.99 percent from 5.04 percent late on Thursday.
The five-year note gained 10/32 in price for a yield of 4.84 percent, down from 4.91 percent late on Thursday.
"Bond traders like the jobs news. It suggests that the risk of yields going higher has lessened because Fed policy seems likely to stabilise at this point," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis.
"We would expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady," Thayer said.
The Fed has raised its target for the benchmark rate for overnight bank loans 17 consecutive times since June 2004 to 5.25 percent, and market participants expect the top of the central bank's tightening cycle is near.
The soft jobs data shows "the economy has lost a lot of momentum," said Michael Cheah, vice president and portfolio manager with AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City.
"The Fed cannot tighten any more. The big new game is when will the Fed cut rates?" Cheah said. "It is very difficult to go home short the bond market this weekend.