Soya ends firm on crop worries

06 Aug, 2006

The Chicago Board of Trade soyabean market closed slightly firmer on Friday but off its highs made on concerns that the US soyabean crop will be stressed next week as hot, dry weather returns to the Midwest, traders said.
"We saw strength most of the day. A lot of it was tied to the weather the six- to 10-day forecast calls for a very high probability of above-average temperatures for the Plains and the western Midwest and below-normal rainfall" said Bill Nelson, analyst with AG Edwards.
Traders were nervous about adding to their short positions before a summer weekend as heat and dryness can have a big impact on soyabeans as they set and fill pods in August.
November soyabeans closed below $6 on Thursday, stimulating some short covering. But the climb in prices faded as the session progressed amid ideas that the US soyabean crop may not be shrinking despite the intense heat the Midwest has experienced over the past week.
Private analyst Informa Economics pegged 2006 US soya production at 3.072 billion bushels and an average yield of 41.5 bushels per acre, traders said.
That was above USA's July US soya forecast for 3.01 billion bushels, with an average yield of 40.7 bpa. Adding to trader's edginess was a 2-1/2 hour shutdown in the electronic markets due a technical snafu.
But the open-outcry markets remained open. August soyabeans, which are in delivery, settled 1-1/2 cent higher at $5.77-1/2.
November soyabeans were up 1-1/2 cents at $5.97, after rising 5-1/2 cents to $6.01 during the day session. There was another round of big August soyabean deliveries 1,343 lots, which were met by scattered stopping.
Spot basis bids for soyabeans were mixed on Friday after scattered sales the past week, dealers said.
The soya products were mixed with soyameal gaining on soyaoil, a reverse of the recent trend as the oil/meal spread corrected some.
August soyameal closed 80 cents up at $163.20 per ton, and deferreds were up 90 cents to $1.40 per ton.
August soyaoil settled 0.14 cent weaker at 26.41 cents per lb, with deferreds down 0.08 to 0.17.
The August crush was off 1-1/4 cent at 72.05 cents per bushel. Funds bought about 1,000 soyabean futures, 1,500 soyameal and sold 1,000 soyaoil.
Malaysian palm oil closed lower. There were 598 August soyameal deliveries, on Friday, which were met by scattered stopping. In soyaoil, there were 56 August deliveries and the ADM house account stopped 46 lots.

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