Benchmark raw sugar futures ended mixed on Monday with nearby contracts posting small losses in a light volume day. Traders said oversold conditions sent many players to the sidelines waiting for new direction. "It was pretty quiet, not much activity today.
The market's a little bit oversold. So, we saw a little correction. We came off the (session) high of 12.30 (cents a lb.) after some short covering on. It just ran into some selling, but the market is oversold so we could see a technical retracement," said Boyd Cruel, commodity analyst at Alaron Trading.
The New York Board of Trade's raw sugar contract for October delivery finished with modest 0.04 cent losses at 12.14 cents a lb and set a tight trading range from 12.09 to 12.30 cents.
Though it dipped below on Friday's low, October sugar held above support at the 8-1/2-month trough set last on Thursday. Other contracts settled from down 0.02 to 0.05 cent higher, with March sugar ending 0.02 cent lower at 12.82 cents.
Volumes, though still light at 45,280 lots, were higher than on Friday's turnover at 35,940 lots.
On Friday's open interest in No 11 raw sugar fell by 2,747 to 477,005 lots. Cruel and others said they expected the 8-1/2-month low hit last on Thursday to hold and prices to correct higher after last week's steep selloff.
"We'll see a technical correction in this market at some point. If we can just stay above the 12.00 (cents a lb.) level, the low last week was 11.96, and trade sideways, maybe we can find a near-term bottom and see a technical retracement," said Alan's Cruel.
If, however, sugar futures close beneath 12.00-cent support on the October contract, he warned that prices may drop down another leg. Some chartists were citing levels for NYBOT sugar at 11.60 cents per lb if the 11.96 cents support breaks. US weather forecaster Meteorlogix said on Monday it foresaw mostly dry conditions in No 1 producer Brazil during the next five days.
It predicted milder conditions later in the week, with dryness a concern for the sugarcane harvest. The weather service said it forecast generally favourable conditions for harvesting of sugar cane, though dryness is a concern for late maturing crop.
The ethanol market showed no trades on Monday. US domestic sugar prices finished strong. The November sugar 14 contract rose 0.20 cent to close at 21.30 cents a lb, January gained 0.10 cent to 21.30 cents, and others ended from down 0.02 cent to up 0.25 cent. Volume rose to 270 lots on Monday from 161 on Friday.