US 2006/07 soyabean exports will reach record volumes as South American shipments weaken, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecasts. It estimates total US 2006/07 soyabean exports at 31.8 million tonnes, up steeply by 6.0 million tonnes from 2005/06 and up 1.9 million tonnes from the previous record season in 2004/05.
"Lower soyabean stocks in South America and a further year-on-year increase in Argentine crushings will reduce the soyabean exports of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay sharply below the year-ago level in September/February," it said. "The increasing world market dependence on US supplies is becoming more and more obvious."
It added: "US soyabean producers and exports have to fill the gap created by the lower shipments from Brazil and Argentina and they also have to satisfy the higher import requirements particularly from China but also from other Asian countries and the rest of the world." Strong US exports could provide price support for soyabeans following the downward market pressure seen recently by forecasts of a good US crop, it said.
"The supply side of the US soyabean balance is bearish, by any means," it said. "However, the sharp increase in world dependence on US supplies as well as the bullish implications of a decline in US soyabean plantings in the spring of 2007 in favour of corn and wheat will soon receive greater attention."
Oil World expects American farmers to plant more wheat and corn because of current very high Chicago prices, turning away ffrom soyabeans.