Eurozone inflation expected to show a decline in September

16 Oct, 2006

Eurozone statistics to be released this week are expected to show an easing in inflationary pressure, perhaps to a greater extent than preliminary estimates signalled, economists said. Industrial output in the 12-nation eurozone is also likely to show a rebound in August.
Final inflation figures for September are expected to confirm that the harmonised index of consumer prices in annual terms fell to 1.8 percent from August's 2.3 percent due to lower oil prices.
Some economists forecast an even bigger drop to 1.7 percent following the downward revision of Spanish and German inflation figures. Core inflation is seen unchanged at 1.8 percent. The European Central Bank holds that annual inflation in the 12-nation zone should be held under 2.0 percent.
Eurozone industrial output is forecast to have bounced back in August following solid gains in French and Italian data. Economists are expecting a month-on-month gain of 1.4 percent compared with July's fall of 0.4 percent and a 4.0 percent rise from a year earlier against the previous month's increase of 3.2 percent.
In Germany the ZEW economic expectations index is predicted to improve in October to minus 20.0 after plummeting 16.6 points to minus 22.2 points in September, the lowest level in nearly eight years. "Following eight consecutive falls, we think the ZEW could record its first rise since the start of this year," Credit Suisse economists said.
German produce prices are meanwhile forecast to have eased 0.2 percent in September from August due to lower oil rates while rising 5.3 percent year-on-year.
In August, the producer price index was up 0.2 percent from July and 5.9 percent higher than a year earlier.
Retail sales are seen as having risen a mere 0.1 percent in August from July as the impact of Italy's World Cup football win abated. Year-on-year, they are forecast to have risen 1.1 percent.

Read Comments