Vietnam will change its rice export strategy by limiting shipments over the next few months to cope with thin stocks and strong demand expected early next year, industry officials said on Monday.
They said prices were forecast to remain firm until March when a key harvest peaks in southern Vietnam, the world's second-largest rice exporter after Thailand. "There is a decline in the summer-autumn crop and production of the winter-spring crop will also be delayed," Truing Thanh Phong, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association, said on state-run Voice of Vietnam radio on Monday. This year's summer-autumn crop harvest in the southern region fell 4 percent from last year to 9.29 million tonnes of paddy, government figures show.
Phong estimated the stock carried forward to 2007 at 200,000 tonnes. He gave no comparative figures. The food association has asked rice exporters to seek only deals for shipment in March 2007 to avoid grain shortages. The government capped rice exports this year at 5 million tonnes. Exporters have so far contracted to sell 4.85 million tonnes, and loaded 4.11 million tonnes.
The Trade Ministry had expected loading of 900,000 tonnes to take place in October-December. But achieving the annual target may not be necessary, as demand in the first quarter of 2007 would be strong, industry officials said at a meeting late last week.
Indonesia could buy 600,000 tonnes and the Philippines would tender for up to 900,000 tonnes in the January-March period on Monday's Vietnam Agriculture newspaper quoted chairman Phong as speaking at the meeting. The Philippines has bought nearly 40 percent, or 1.47 million tonnes, of Vietnam's rice exports in the first eight months of 2006.
Japan ranked second with 142,000 tonnes and Indonesia was third, with 103,000 tonnes. Vietnam also planned to ship 150,000 tonnes to Cuba next year while state-run Vinafood 1 recently signed a deal to ship 200,000 tonnes to Africa, the Agriculture Ministry-run newspaper said. It quoted Agriculture Minister Cao Duc Phat, as saying Vietnam will aim for more rice from the Mekong delta to meet demand.
"Regarding the government's target to export 5 million tonnes, it won't hurt now even if less than 5 million tonnes is shipped," Phat added. The region has been facing problems with pests and experts have advised farmers to clean up fields before planting the next winter-spring crop, the top yielding one, from November 15. This means a delay of two weeks for production and the harvest could peak from late March, traders said.