Cotton futures settled easier Tuesday on speculative sales after an attempt to push the market up stalled badly at the top of the range, and this could lead to further losses in the coming days, brokers said.
The New York Board of Trade's December cotton contract slid 0.45 cent to finish at 49.57 cents per lb, moving between 49.50 and 50.41 cents. March shed 0.36 to 52.67 cents. The rest declined from 0.30 to 0.45 cent.
Frank Weathersby, an analyst for brokers Affinity Trading in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, said speculators and investment funds bought the market early to see if the December contract could race past a key target at 50.50 cents where automatic "buy" orders are sitting and could kick cotton higher.
"That's what they wanted to get and they failed," he said, adding a lack of follow-through buying prompted speculators to dump cotton contracts going into the close of trade.
Cotton has had a tough time trying to claw up given the bearish fundamentals in the market. Estimates of world output have recently been raised while global consumption has been cut, especially in top cotton consumer China.
The longer-term outlook though for cotton, particularly in 2007/08, may get a boost from surging prices of corn and wheat, among others.
Analysts said that if the December contract can keep its head above 48 cents, a seasonal low that is usually associated with harvest pressure may be in place.
Sharon Johnson, cotton expert for First Capitol Group, said the December contract has traded at 48.07 and 48.08 cents and then rose for several sessions, which may lend "credence to the potential for a significant double bottom."
Some modest switch trade was also seen in the December contract as players began moving positions to the back months. Open interest in the December contract fell 656 to 113,963 lots as of October 23 while interest in March rose 892 to 45,148 lots.
Broker Flanagan Trading Corp sees resistance in the December contract at 50 and 50.50 cents, with support at 49.30 and 48.75 cents. Floor sources said final volume hit around 14,000 lots, from the previous tally of 14,996 lots. Open interest in the cotton market rose 389 lots to 183,225 lots as of October 23.