Gold stalls after oil-driven rise to one-week high

28 Oct, 2006

Gold retreated after a run to its highest level in nearly a week on Thursday, lacking follow-through buying to sustain the gains despite a rally in crude oil.
Gold is struggling to regain $600 after previous attempts to stay above that level were met by profit taking. There was speculation some investors may be shifting to shares, with global stocks hitting an all-time record. Spot gold hit a high of $593 an ounce on safe-haven buying after crude oil moved towards $62 a barrel following a surprise drop in US crude stocks.
It later fell to an intraday low of $590.80 and hovered at $592.90/594.30 an ounce by 0708 GMT, higher than $589.20/590.70 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday, when it had gained nearly $6.
Investors, an important part of the gold market, may pull their money out and invest in other assets because of bullion's recent lacklustre performance, said commodities analyst Tobin Gorey of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"If gold doesn't make any money, then there's plenty of people who can sell it to get to other assets ... If you are in another asset, you'll be making some money," he said.
Gold has rebounded since falling to its lowest level in nearly four months around $559 in early October. But it has lost around 19 percent in value since hitting a 26-year high of $730 in mid-May. "I think it's a pretty soggy response to the rise in oil. I just think gold hasn't taken the opportunity to rally," said a dealer in Sydney.
"Given my bearish bet, I am not sure if gold can regain $600 any time soon," he said. Key gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, currently August 2007, closed 28 yen per gram higher at 2,284 yen to track gains in oil.
Crude oil jumped on Thursday, extending a 3.5 percent surge the previous day, after US government data showed an unexpected 3.3-million-barrel drop in commercial crude stocks in the week to October 20 from the week before, against forecasts of a 2.6-million-barrel increase.
Oil also gained after more Opec members said they would implement agreed supply cuts, following Saudi Arabia's move to reduce its exports. Dealers said the US Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to keep short-term interest rates at 5.25 percent, as expected, for a third straight meeting supported gold as it triggered selling in the dollar.
"I think we will continue trading in a range with a bias to the upside," said a dealer in Singapore. Dealers pegged the downside at $570 while $605 would be the upside target. The dollar slipped to 118.71 yen from around 119.10 yen in late US trade. The euro rose against the dollar to $1.2654 from around $1.2600.
The dollar weakened after a warning on inflation by the Fed was less harsh than some investors had anticipated and suggested US interest rates would stay on hold for some time. The Fed said core inflation rates had been "elevated" but it thought this should ease because there was less impact from higher energy prices.
Platinum rose to $1,075/1,080 an ounce from $1,061/1,066 late in New York. Palladium also rose to $321.50/326.50 from $320/325 an ounce. Silver edged up to $11.94/11.99 an ounce from $11.86/11.93 late in New York.

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